bayesRatings

Tigers at Giants

MLB · Saturday, Aug 8 · 6:15 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final DET 8 – SF 0
← MLB / Aug 8

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET0000016018100
SF000000000020
Team box
DET·SF
10
hits
2
0
home runs
0
9
walks
1
5
strikeouts
7
124
pitches thrown
177
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Max ClarkDET2-5102
Javier BaezDET2-5001
Eduardo ValenciaDET1-2102
Dillon DinglerDET1-4101
Spencer TorkelsonDET1-3001
Kevin McGonigleDET1-6101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jackson Jobe (W)DET5.01014
Landen Roupp (L)SF5.12153

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +8
DET +8
123456789
largest lead: SF 0 · DET 8lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 53%, SF 47% · Updated Aug 8

Expected margin
DET by 0.7
Expected score
DET 4.5 – 3.9 SF
Expected total
8.4
TigersThe matchupGiants
−112Our fair odds+112
4.5Expected runs3.9
+0.08Power rating−0.10
4.6Runs / game4.2
3.9Allowed / game4.6
8.2Hits / game8.6
1.24Home runs / game1.13
3.6Walks drawn / game2.6
56−60Season record49−67
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · SF chance
Our model fair52.8%47.2%
Kalshi54.7%49.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers−11253%−12154.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants+11247%+10149.7%———
SpreadDET by 0.7
DETDetroit Tigers−0.7our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.4
Over8.4our total————
Under8.4our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 0.7 expected
Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 11%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 11%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 18%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 9%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%
← DET wins bySF wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more42%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more31%
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.4 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.528%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETJackson Jobe SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.02 ERA, 12 Kstarted
SFLanden Roupp SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 6.91 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·SF
Aug 7 at SF
last game
Aug 7 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
8th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 116+ games
DET·SF
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.10
4.6
runs / game
4.2
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.6
56−60
season record
49−67
30−27
home record
27−27
26−33
away record
22−40
L1
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.2
hits / game
8.6
1.24
home runs / game
1.13
3.6
walks drawn / game
2.6
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.6
0.44
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

DET · SF · 133 days
Detroit TigersSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 3−7
Aug 7at SFSF 5 − 2
May 28, 2025at DETDET 4 − 3
May 27, 2025at DETDET 3 − 1
May 26, 2025at DETDET 3 − 1
Aug 11, 2024at SFDET 5 − 4
Aug 10, 2024at SFSF 3 − 1
Aug 9, 2024at SFSF 3 − 2
Jul 24, 2023at DETDET 5 − 1
Apr 15, 2023at DETDET 7 − 6
Apr 14, 2023at DETDET 7 − 5

DET · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Aug 7at SF2 − 5L
Aug 6at SEA11 − 0W
Aug 5at SEA2 − 4L
Aug 4at SEA8 − 0W
Aug 2at ATH11 − 0W
Aug 1at ATH8 − 6W
Jul 31at ATH13 − 1W
Jul 29vs BAL9 − 10L
Jul 28vs BAL14 − 0W
Jul 27vs BAL5 − 8L

SF · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Aug 7vs DET5 − 2W
Aug 5at TEX0 − 6L
Aug 4at TEX4 − 5L
Aug 3at TEX5 − 1W
Aug 2at SD4 − 5L
Aug 1at SD5 − 6L
Jul 31at SD0 − 7L
Jul 30at SD4 − 1W
Jul 29vs MIL16 − 3W
Jul 28vs MIL2 − 8L