bayesRatings

Tigers at Athletics

MLB · Sunday, Aug 2 · 3:05 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final DET 11 – ATH 0
← MLB / Aug 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET20040004111120
ATH000000000070
Team box
DET·ATH
12
hits
7
1
home runs
0
9
walks
2
7
strikeouts
7
136
pitches thrown
204
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Eduardo ValenciaDET2-5104
Spencer TorkelsonDET2-5003
James OutmanDET1-1111
Gleyber TorresDET1-2302
Jeff McNeilATH2-4000
Zach McKinstryDET2-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Keider Montero (W)DET6.02022
Gage Jump (L)ATH3.24665

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +11
DET +11
123456789
largest lead: ATH 0 · DET 11lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 57%, ATH 43% · Updated Aug 2

Expected margin
DET by 1.5
Expected score
DET 5.8 – 4.3 ATH
Expected total
10.1
TigersThe matchupAthletics
−133Our fair odds+133
5.8Expected runs4.3
+0.05Power rating−0.30
4.5Runs / game4.4
4.0Allowed / game5.7
8.1Hits / game8.4
1.23Home runs / game1.21
3.5Walks drawn / game3.4
53−58Season record45−66
6−4Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · ATH chance
Our model fair57.0%43.0%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers−13357%−12655.7%———
ATHAthletics+13343%+10548.7%———
SpreadDET by 1.5
DETDetroit Tigers−1.5our margin————
ATHAthletics+1.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.1
Over10.1our total————
Under10.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 1.5 expected
Detroit Tigers by 16 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 15 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 14 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 10%Athletics by 1 run: 15%Athletics by 2 runs: 8%Athletics by 3 runs: 5%Athletics by 4 runs: 4%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 7 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 16 runs: <1%
← DET wins byATH wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more49%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more39%
Athletics wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.559%
Total over 10.542%
Total over 12.528%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETKeider Montero SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 2.70 ERA, 12 Kstarted
ATHGage Jump SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 5.65 ERA, 20 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·ATH
Aug 1 at ATH
last game
Aug 1 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 111+ games
DET·ATH
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.30
4.5
runs / game
4.4
4.0
runs allowed / game
5.7
53−58
season record
45−66
30−27
home record
21−35
23−31
away record
24−31
W2
streak
L4
6−4
last 10
2−8
8.1
hits / game
8.4
1.23
home runs / game
1.21
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.45
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

DET · ATH · 127 days
Detroit TigersAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 4−6
Aug 1at ATHDET 8 − 6
Jul 31at ATHDET 13 − 1
Jul 9at DETDET 4 − 1
Jul 8at DETDET 6 − 1
Jul 7at DETDET 6 − 2
Aug 27, 2025at ATHATH 7 − 0
Aug 26, 2025at ATHATH 7 − 6
Aug 25, 2025at ATHATH 8 − 3
Jun 26, 2025at DETDET 8 − 0
Jun 25, 2025at DETATH 3 − 0

DET · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Aug 1at ATH8 − 6W
Jul 31at ATH13 − 1W
Jul 29vs BAL9 − 10L
Jul 28vs BAL14 − 0W
Jul 27vs BAL5 − 8L
Jul 26vs KC4 − 5L
Jul 25vs KC2 − 3L
Jul 24vs KC2 − 1W
Jul 23vs KC4 − 3W
Jul 22at CHC5 − 1W

ATH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L4
Aug 1vs DET6 − 8L
Jul 31vs DET1 − 13L
Jul 30vs BOS4 − 5L
Jul 29vs BOS2 − 4L
Jul 28vs BOS4 − 3W
Jul 27vs BOS2 − 4L
Jul 26at MIN8 − 11L
Jul 25at MIN0 − 2L
Jul 24at MIN2 − 0W
Jul 22at ARI5 − 15L