bayesRatings

Orioles at Tigers

MLB · Monday, Jul 27 · 5:40 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final BAL 8 – DET 5
← MLB / Jul 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL1210310008120
DET0102200005111
Team box
BAL·DET
12
hits
11
3
home runs
0
4
walks
1
3
strikeouts
10
146
pitches thrown
155
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Coby MayoBAL2-4213
Jackson HollidayBAL4-5200
Tyler O'NeillBAL1-1111
Leody TaverasBAL1-5211
Zach McKinstryDET2-3101
Spencer TorkelsonDET2-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kyle BradishBAL4.210514
Grant Wolfram (W)BAL1.10002
Rico Garcia (S)BAL1.00002
Keider Montero (L)DET4.19411

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +4
BAL +4
123456789
largest lead: DET 0 · BAL 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 47%, DET 53% · Updated Jul 27

Expected margin
DET by 0.6
Expected score
DET 4.3 – 3.8 BAL
Expected total
8.1
OriolesThe matchupTigers
+113Our fair odds−113
3.8Expected runs4.3
−0.04Power rating+0.03
4.6Runs / game4.2
4.7Allowed / game3.9
7.9Hits / game7.8
1.17Home runs / game1.20
3.9Walks drawn / game3.5
51−55Season record50−56
6−4Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · DET chance
Our model fair46.9%53.1%
Kalshi48.7%56.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+11347%+10548.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers−11353%−13156.7%———
SpreadDET by 0.6
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.6our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 0.6 expected
Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 17%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 12%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 11%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more41%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more30%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALKyle Bradish SP · last 3 starts: 20.1 IP, 2.21 ERA, 14 Kstarted
DETKeider Montero SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 1.86 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·DET
Jul 26 vs ATL
last game
Jul 26 vs KC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 106+ games
BAL·DET
−0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
4.6
runs / game
4.2
4.7
runs allowed / game
3.9
51−55
season record
50−56
29−27
home record
29−25
22−28
away record
21−31
L1
streak
L2
6−4
last 10
6−4
7.9
hits / game
7.8
1.17
home runs / game
1.20
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.5
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.65
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

BAL · DET · 121 days
Baltimore OriolesDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 7−3
May 24at BALDET 4 − 1
May 24at BALBAL 5 − 3
May 22at BALBAL 7 − 4
Jun 12, 2025at BALDET 4 − 1
Jun 11, 2025at BALBAL 10 − 1
Jun 10, 2025at BALDET 5 − 3
Apr 27, 2025at DETDET 7 − 0
Apr 26, 2025at DETDET 6 − 2
Apr 26, 2025at DETDET 4 − 3
Sep 22, 2024at BALDET 4 − 3

BAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jul 26vs ATL2 − 3L
Jul 25vs ATL3 − 2W
Jul 24vs ATL6 − 7L
Jul 22at BOS5 − 1W
Jul 22at BOS3 − 6L
Jul 20at BOS5 − 6L
Jul 19at HOU5 − 2W
Jul 18at HOU4 − 2W
Jul 17at HOU3 − 2W
Jul 12vs KC8 − 2W

DET · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Jul 26vs KC4 − 5L
Jul 25vs KC2 − 3L
Jul 24vs KC2 − 1W
Jul 23vs KC4 − 3W
Jul 22at CHC5 − 1W
Jul 21at CHC2 − 11L
Jul 20at CHC8 − 6W
Jul 19at LAA2 − 3L
Jul 18at LAA7 − 0W
Jul 17at LAA2 − 1W