bayesRatings

Braves at Orioles

MLB · Saturday, Jul 25 · 6:05 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final ATL 2 – BAL 3
← MLB / Jul 25

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL000001010262
BAL001010001370
Team box
ATL·BAL
6
hits
7
1
home runs
1
2
walks
4
9
strikeouts
14
160
pitches thrown
131
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ozzie AlbiesATL1-4111
Gunnar HendersonBAL1-4111
Dylan BeaversBAL2-4001
Mauricio DubonATL1-4001
Christian Encarnacion-StrandBAL1-4001
Jackson HollidayBAL2-3100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Bryce ElderATL5.04148
Didier Fuentes (L)ATL1.22103
Brandon YoungBAL6.14126
Yennier Cano (W)BAL1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +3
ATL +3
123456789
largest lead: BAL 2 · ATL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 53%, BAL 47% · Updated Jul 25

Expected margin
ATL by 0.9
Expected score
ATL 5.1 – 4.2 BAL
Expected total
9.3
BravesThe matchupOrioles
−113Our fair odds+113
5.1Expected runs4.2
+0.13Power rating−0.04
5.0Runs / game4.6
4.0Allowed / game4.7
8.5Hits / game8.0
1.34Home runs / game1.17
3.0Walks drawn / game3.9
61−42Season record50−54
7−3Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · BAL chance
Our model fair53.0%47.0%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−11353%−10751.8%———
BALBaltimore Orioles+11347%−11252.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.9
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.9our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.9 expected
Atlanta Braves by 15 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 11%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 16%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 15 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byBAL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more44%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more34%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLBryce Elder SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 6.43 ERA, 11 Kstarted
BALBrandon Young SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 3.79 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·BAL
Jul 24 at BAL
last game
Jul 24 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 103+ games
ATL·BAL
+0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
5.0
runs / game
4.6
4.0
runs allowed / game
4.7
61−42
season record
50−54
32−20
home record
28−26
29−22
away record
22−28
W3
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
7−3
8.5
hits / game
8.0
1.34
home runs / game
1.17
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.45
errors / game
0.65

Rating Trend

ATL · BAL · 119 days
Atlanta BravesBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 6−4
Jul 24at BALATL 7 − 6
Jul 6, 2025at ATLBAL 2 − 1
Jul 5, 2025at ATLBAL 9 − 6
Jul 4, 2025at ATLBAL 3 − 2
Jun 13, 2024at BALATL 6 − 3
Jun 12, 2024at BALBAL 4 − 2
Jun 11, 2024at BALBAL 4 − 0
May 7, 2023at ATLATL 3 − 2
May 6, 2023at ATLATL 5 − 4
May 5, 2023at ATLBAL 9 − 4

ATL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Jul 24at BAL7 − 6W
Jul 23vs SD6 − 5W
Jul 22vs SD7 − 6W
Jul 21vs SD3 − 8L
Jul 20vs SD3 − 2W
Jul 19vs TEX8 − 5W
Jul 18vs TEX6 − 7L
Jul 17vs TEX15 − 1W
Jul 12at STL4 − 3W
Jul 11at STL1 − 4L

BAL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jul 24vs ATL6 − 7L
Jul 22at BOS5 − 1W
Jul 22at BOS3 − 6L
Jul 20at BOS5 − 6L
Jul 19at HOU5 − 2W
Jul 18at HOU4 − 2W
Jul 17at HOU3 − 2W
Jul 12vs KC8 − 2W
Jul 11vs KC6 − 1W
Jul 10vs KC5 − 3W