bayesRatings

Braves at Orioles

MLB · Sunday, Jul 26 · 12:35 PM CT · Oriole Park at Camden Yards · Final ATL 3 – BAL 2
← MLB / Jul 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team1234567891011THE
ATL01010000001381
BAL00000001100261
Team box
ATL·BAL
8
hits
6
0
home runs
1
9
walks
6
6
strikeouts
9
164
pitches thrown
202
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dominic SmithATL3-5002
Pete AlonsoBAL2-4111
Austin RileyATL1-4001
Drake BaldwinATL2-3000
Taylor WardBAL2-5000
Matt OlsonATL1-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Reynaldo LopezATL5.25016
Tyler Kinley (W)ATL1.10021
Shane BazBAL4.16122
Andrew Kittredge (L)BAL1.01020

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
BAL +3
ATL +3
1234567891011
largest lead: BAL 0 · ATL 2lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 53%, BAL 47% · Updated Jul 26

Expected margin
ATL by 0.9
Expected score
ATL 5.0 – 4.1 BAL
Expected total
9.2
BravesThe matchupOrioles
−112Our fair odds+112
5.0Expected runs4.1
+0.13Power rating−0.04
5.0Runs / game4.6
4.0Allowed / game4.7
8.5Hits / game7.9
1.34Home runs / game1.17
3.0Walks drawn / game3.9
61−43Season record51−54
7−3Last 107−3

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · BAL chance
Our model fair52.8%47.2%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:35 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−11253%−11252.7%———
BALBaltimore Orioles+11247%−10751.8%———
SpreadATL by 0.9
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.9our margin————
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.9 expected
Atlanta Braves by 15 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 11%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 16%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 14 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 15 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byBAL wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more44%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more34%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLReynaldo Lopez RP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 6.28 ERA, 14 Kstarted
BALShane Baz SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 3.24 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·BAL
Jul 25 at BAL
last game
Jul 25 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 104+ games
ATL·BAL
+0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.04
5.0
runs / game
4.6
4.0
runs allowed / game
4.7
61−43
season record
51−54
32−20
home record
29−26
29−23
away record
22−28
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
7−3
8.5
hits / game
7.9
1.34
home runs / game
1.17
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
9.2
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.9
0.46
errors / game
0.65

Rating Trend

ATL · BAL · 120 days
Atlanta BravesBaltimore Orioles
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · BAL 6−4
Jul 25at BALBAL 3 − 2
Jul 24at BALATL 7 − 6
Jul 6, 2025at ATLBAL 2 − 1
Jul 5, 2025at ATLBAL 9 − 6
Jul 4, 2025at ATLBAL 3 − 2
Jun 13, 2024at BALATL 6 − 3
Jun 12, 2024at BALBAL 4 − 2
Jun 11, 2024at BALBAL 4 − 0
May 7, 2023at ATLATL 3 − 2
May 6, 2023at ATLATL 5 − 4

ATL · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jul 25at BAL2 − 3L
Jul 24at BAL7 − 6W
Jul 23vs SD6 − 5W
Jul 22vs SD7 − 6W
Jul 21vs SD3 − 8L
Jul 20vs SD3 − 2W
Jul 19vs TEX8 − 5W
Jul 18vs TEX6 − 7L
Jul 17vs TEX15 − 1W
Jul 12at STL4 − 3W

BAL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jul 25vs ATL3 − 2W
Jul 24vs ATL6 − 7L
Jul 22at BOS5 − 1W
Jul 22at BOS3 − 6L
Jul 20at BOS5 − 6L
Jul 19at HOU5 − 2W
Jul 18at HOU4 − 2W
Jul 17at HOU3 − 2W
Jul 12vs KC8 − 2W
Jul 11vs KC6 − 1W