bayesRatings

Tigers at Athletics

MLB · Friday, Jul 31 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final DET 13 – ATH 1
← MLB / Jul 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET00110007413140
ATH100000000131
Team box
DET·ATH
14
hits
3
3
home runs
0
7
walks
3
7
strikeouts
7
116
pitches thrown
183
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dillon DinglerDET2-6114
Javier BaezDET3-5203
Ben MalgeriDET1-4212
Kevin McGonigleDET1-3212
Max ClarkDET3-4201
Spencer TorkelsonDET3-4300
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tyler HoltonDET2.01111
Ty Madden (W)DET3.02022
Jeffrey Springs (L)ATH4.04252

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +12
DET +12
123456789
largest lead: ATH 1 · DET 12lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 56%, ATH 44% · Updated Jul 31

Expected margin
DET by 1.3
Expected score
DET 5.6 – 4.3 ATH
Expected total
9.9
TigersThe matchupAthletics
−125Our fair odds+125
5.6Expected runs4.3
+0.03Power rating−0.26
4.3Runs / game4.4
4.0Allowed / game5.6
8.0Hits / game8.3
1.20Home runs / game1.22
3.5Walks drawn / game3.4
51−58Season record45−64
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · ATH chance
Our model fair55.6%44.4%
Kalshi58.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers−12556%−14258.7%———
ATHAthletics+12544%+11945.7%———
SpreadDET by 1.3
DETDetroit Tigers−1.3our margin————
ATHAthletics+1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.9
Over9.9our total————
Under9.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 1.3 expected
Detroit Tigers by 16 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 15 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 14 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 10%Athletics by 1 run: 15%Athletics by 2 runs: 8%Athletics by 3 runs: 6%Athletics by 4 runs: 4%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 7 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 16 runs: <1%
← DET wins byATH wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more48%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more38%
Athletics wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.9 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.565%
Total over 9.547%
Total over 11.532%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETTyler Holton RP · last 3 starts: 2.2 IP, 6.75 ERA, 4 Kstarted
ATHJeffrey Springs SP · last 3 starts: 10.2 IP, 10.12 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·ATH
Jul 29 vs BAL
last game
Jul 30 vs BOS
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 109+ games
DET·ATH
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
−0.26
4.3
runs / game
4.4
4.0
runs allowed / game
5.6
51−58
season record
45−64
30−27
home record
21−33
21−31
away record
24−31
L1
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
3−7
8.0
hits / game
8.3
1.20
home runs / game
1.22
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.7
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.46
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

DET · ATH · 125 days
Detroit TigersAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 4−6
Jul 9at DETDET 4 − 1
Jul 8at DETDET 6 − 1
Jul 7at DETDET 6 − 2
Aug 27, 2025at ATHATH 7 − 0
Aug 26, 2025at ATHATH 7 − 6
Aug 25, 2025at ATHATH 8 − 3
Jun 26, 2025at DETDET 8 − 0
Jun 25, 2025at DETATH 3 − 0
Jun 24, 2025at DETDET 11 − 4
Sep 8, 2024at ATHDET 9 − 1

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 29vs BAL9 − 10L
Jul 28vs BAL14 − 0W
Jul 27vs BAL5 − 8L
Jul 26vs KC4 − 5L
Jul 25vs KC2 − 3L
Jul 24vs KC2 − 1W
Jul 23vs KC4 − 3W
Jul 22at CHC5 − 1W
Jul 21at CHC2 − 11L
Jul 20at CHC8 − 6W

ATH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Jul 30vs BOS4 − 5L
Jul 29vs BOS2 − 4L
Jul 28vs BOS4 − 3W
Jul 27vs BOS2 − 4L
Jul 26at MIN8 − 11L
Jul 25at MIN0 − 2L
Jul 24at MIN2 − 0W
Jul 22at ARI5 − 15L
Jul 21at ARI5 − 6L
Jul 20at ARI5 − 2W