bayesRatings

Red Sox at Athletics

MLB · Monday, Jul 27 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final BOS 4 – ATH 2
← MLB / Jul 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS000004000452
ATH100001000260
Team box
BOS·ATH
5
hits
6
1
home runs
2
4
walks
1
6
strikeouts
13
141
pitches thrown
132
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS1-4114
Jonah HeimATH1-4111
Tyler SoderstromATH1-3111
Colby ThomasATH2-4000
Jeff McNeilATH1-3000
Alika WilliamsATH1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Payton Tolle (W)BOS5.15217
Aroldis Chapman (S)BOS1.01003
Jack Perkins (L)ATH5.21234

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +3
BOS +3
123456789
largest lead: ATH 1 · BOS 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 58%, ATH 42% · Updated Jul 27

Expected margin
BOS by 1.4
Expected score
BOS 5.8 – 4.3 ATH
Expected total
10.1
Red SoxThe matchupAthletics
−136Our fair odds+136
5.8Expected runs4.3
+0.12Power rating−0.25
4.2Runs / game4.5
3.8Allowed / game5.6
8.1Hits / game8.4
0.94Home runs / game1.22
3.0Walks drawn / game3.5
54−50Season record44−61
8−2Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · ATH chance
Our model fair57.6%42.4%
Kalshi66.6%38.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox−13658%−19966.6%———
ATHAthletics+13642%+15938.6%———
SpreadBOS by 1.4
BOSBoston Red Sox−1.4our margin————
ATHAthletics+1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.1
Over10.1our total————
Under10.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 1.4 expected
Boston Red Sox by 16 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 15 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 14 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 10%Athletics by 1 run: 15%Athletics by 2 runs: 8%Athletics by 3 runs: 5%Athletics by 4 runs: 4%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 7 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 16 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byATH wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more49%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more39%
Athletics wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.559%
Total over 10.542%
Total over 12.528%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSPayton Tolle SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 2.93 ERA, 22 Kstarted
ATHJack Perkins SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 7.90 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·ATH
Jul 26 vs TOR
last game
Jul 26 at MIN
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 104+ games
BOS·ATH
+0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.25
4.2
runs / game
4.5
3.8
runs allowed / game
5.6
54−50
season record
44−61
25−29
home record
20−30
29−21
away record
24−31
W1
streak
L2
8−2
last 10
3−7
8.1
hits / game
8.4
0.94
home runs / game
1.22
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.5
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.44
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

BOS · ATH · 121 days
Boston Red SoxAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 4−6
Sep 18, 2025at BOSATH 5 − 3
Sep 17, 2025at BOSBOS 5 − 4
Sep 16, 2025at BOSATH 2 − 1
Sep 10, 2025at ATHATH 5 − 4
Sep 9, 2025at ATHBOS 6 − 0
Sep 8, 2025at ATHBOS 7 − 0
Jul 11, 2024at BOSBOS 7 − 0
Jul 10, 2024at BOSATH 5 − 2
Jul 9, 2024at BOSBOS 12 − 9
Apr 3, 2024at ATHBOS 1 − 0

BOS · Last 10

8−2 · streak W1
Jul 26vs TOR6 − 1W
Jul 25vs TOR0 − 6L
Jul 24vs TOR6 − 4W
Jul 22vs BAL1 − 5L
Jul 22vs BAL6 − 3W
Jul 20vs BAL6 − 5W
Jul 19vs TB6 − 1W
Jul 18vs TB7 − 6W
Jul 17vs TB5 − 3W
Jul 17vs TB10 − 0W

ATH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Jul 26at MIN8 − 11L
Jul 25at MIN0 − 2L
Jul 24at MIN2 − 0W
Jul 22at ARI5 − 15L
Jul 21at ARI5 − 6L
Jul 20at ARI5 − 2W
Jul 19vs WSH2 − 5L
Jul 18vs WSH15 − 1W
Jul 17vs WSH4 − 23L
Jul 12at CHW1 − 9L