bayesRatings

Orioles at Tigers

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 29 · 12:10 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final BAL 10 – DET 9
← MLB / Jul 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789101112THE
BAL0000005200211093
DET0030220000209101
Team box
BAL·DET
9
hits
10
0
home runs
1
5
walks
3
11
strikeouts
9
160
pitches thrown
197
3
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Spencer TorkelsonDET2-5212
Jackson HollidayBAL2-3103
Coby MayoBAL2-3202
Javier BaezDET2-5202
Taylor WardBAL1-5102
Zach McKinstryDET1-3102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Trevor RogersBAL6.08406
Grant Wolfram (W)BAL1.00011
Andrew Kittredge (S)BAL0.10000
Tarik SkubalDET6.24316
Drew Sommers (L)DET1.02002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +7
BAL +7
123456789101112
largest lead: DET 7 · BAL 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 47%, DET 53% · Updated Jul 29

Expected margin
DET by 0.7
Expected score
DET 4.4 – 3.7 BAL
Expected total
8.2
OriolesThe matchupTigers
+115Our fair odds−115
3.7Expected runs4.4
−0.05Power rating+0.03
4.5Runs / game4.3
4.8Allowed / game3.9
7.9Hits / game8.0
1.18Home runs / game1.20
3.9Walks drawn / game3.5
52−56Season record51−57
5−5Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · DET chance
Our model fair46.6%53.4%
Kalshi38.6%65.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+11547%+15938.6%———
DETDetroit Tigers−11553%−19165.6%———
SpreadDET by 0.7
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.7our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers−0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 0.7 expected
Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 4%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 18%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 12%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 11%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more42%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more31%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALTrevor Rogers SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 1.86 ERA, 18 Kstarted
DETTarik Skubal SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 1.40 ERA, 26 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·DET
Jul 28 at DET
last game
Jul 28 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 108+ games
BAL·DET
−0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.03
4.5
runs / game
4.3
4.8
runs allowed / game
3.9
52−56
season record
51−57
29−27
home record
30−26
23−29
away record
21−31
L1
streak
W1
5−5
last 10
5−5
7.9
hits / game
8.0
1.18
home runs / game
1.20
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.5
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.65
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

BAL · DET · 123 days
Baltimore OriolesDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 6−4
Jul 28at DETDET 14 − 0
Jul 27at DETBAL 8 − 5
May 24at BALDET 4 − 1
May 24at BALBAL 5 − 3
May 22at BALBAL 7 − 4
Jun 12, 2025at BALDET 4 − 1
Jun 11, 2025at BALBAL 10 − 1
Jun 10, 2025at BALDET 5 − 3
Apr 27, 2025at DETDET 7 − 0
Apr 26, 2025at DETDET 6 − 2

BAL · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 28at DET0 − 14L
Jul 27at DET8 − 5W
Jul 26vs ATL2 − 3L
Jul 25vs ATL3 − 2W
Jul 24vs ATL6 − 7L
Jul 22at BOS5 − 1W
Jul 22at BOS3 − 6L
Jul 20at BOS5 − 6L
Jul 19at HOU5 − 2W
Jul 18at HOU4 − 2W

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jul 28vs BAL14 − 0W
Jul 27vs BAL5 − 8L
Jul 26vs KC4 − 5L
Jul 25vs KC2 − 3L
Jul 24vs KC2 − 1W
Jul 23vs KC4 − 3W
Jul 22at CHC5 − 1W
Jul 21at CHC2 − 11L
Jul 20at CHC8 − 6W
Jul 19at LAA2 − 3L