bayesRatings

Orioles at Tigers

MLB · Tuesday, Jul 28 · 5:40 PM CT · Comerica Park · Final BAL 0 – DET 14
← MLB / Jul 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BAL000000000031
DET2312112214190
Team box
BAL·DET
3
hits
19
0
home runs
3
2
walks
4
7
strikeouts
7
168
pitches thrown
119
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Eduardo ValenciaDET4-5324
Gleyber TorresDET2-5115
Kevin McGonigleDET4-5401
Colt KeithDET2-3102
Javier BaezDET3-4100
Ben MalgeriDET2-2101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Dean Kremer (L)BAL4.08834
Troy Melton (W)DET7.03025

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
DET +14
BAL +14
123456789
largest lead: DET 14 · BAL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BAL 47%, DET 53% · Updated Jul 28

Expected margin
DET by 0.6
Expected score
DET 4.3 – 3.8 BAL
Expected total
8.1
OriolesThe matchupTigers
+111Our fair odds−111
3.8Expected runs4.3
−0.03Power rating+0.02
4.6Runs / game4.2
4.7Allowed / game4.0
8.0Hits / game7.9
1.19Home runs / game1.19
3.9Walks drawn / game3.5
52−55Season record50−57
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BAL chance · DET chance
Our model fair47.3%52.7%
Kalshi44.7%59.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BALBaltimore Orioles+11147%+12444.7%———
DETDetroit Tigers−11153%−14859.7%———
SpreadDET by 0.6
BALBaltimore Orioles+0.6our margin————
DETDetroit Tigers−0.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.1
Over8.1our total————
Under8.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 0.6 expected
Baltimore Orioles by 13 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 12 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 11 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 10 runs: <1%Baltimore Orioles by 9 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 8 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 7 runs: 1%Baltimore Orioles by 6 runs: 2%Baltimore Orioles by 5 runs: 3%Baltimore Orioles by 4 runs: 5%Baltimore Orioles by 3 runs: 6%Baltimore Orioles by 2 runs: 9%Baltimore Orioles by 1 run: 18%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 12%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 11%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: <1%
← BAL wins byDET wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more41%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more30%
Baltimore Orioles wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.1 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.562%
Total over 8.542%
Total over 10.525%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BALDean Kremer SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 7.20 ERA, 14 Kstarted
DETTroy Melton SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 1.69 ERA, 23 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BAL·DET
Jul 27 at DET
last game
Jul 27 vs BAL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 107+ games
BAL·DET
−0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.6
runs / game
4.2
4.7
runs allowed / game
4.0
52−55
season record
50−57
29−27
home record
29−26
23−28
away record
21−31
W1
streak
L3
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.0
hits / game
7.9
1.19
home runs / game
1.19
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.5
9.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
7.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.64
errors / game
0.46

Rating Trend

BAL · DET · 122 days
Baltimore OriolesDetroit Tigers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · DET 6−4
Jul 27at DETBAL 8 − 5
May 24at BALDET 4 − 1
May 24at BALBAL 5 − 3
May 22at BALBAL 7 − 4
Jun 12, 2025at BALDET 4 − 1
Jun 11, 2025at BALBAL 10 − 1
Jun 10, 2025at BALDET 5 − 3
Apr 27, 2025at DETDET 7 − 0
Apr 26, 2025at DETDET 6 − 2
Apr 26, 2025at DETDET 4 − 3

BAL · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jul 27at DET8 − 5W
Jul 26vs ATL2 − 3L
Jul 25vs ATL3 − 2W
Jul 24vs ATL6 − 7L
Jul 22at BOS5 − 1W
Jul 22at BOS3 − 6L
Jul 20at BOS5 − 6L
Jul 19at HOU5 − 2W
Jul 18at HOU4 − 2W
Jul 17at HOU3 − 2W

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Jul 27vs BAL5 − 8L
Jul 26vs KC4 − 5L
Jul 25vs KC2 − 3L
Jul 24vs KC2 − 1W
Jul 23vs KC4 − 3W
Jul 22at CHC5 − 1W
Jul 21at CHC2 − 11L
Jul 20at CHC8 − 6W
Jul 19at LAA2 − 3L
Jul 18at LAA7 − 0W