bayesRatings

Red Sox at Athletics

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 29 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final BOS 4 – ATH 2
← MLB / Jul 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
BOS00001100024122
ATH0100100000281
Team box
BOS·ATH
12
hits
8
2
home runs
2
4
walks
2
12
strikeouts
14
164
pitches thrown
175
2
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Andruw MonasterioBOS3-4112
Jonah HeimATH3-5111
Lawrence ButlerATH2-3111
Jahmai JonesBOS1-2111
Nick SogardBOS2-5001
Caleb DurbinBOS3-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Patrick SandovalBOS5.05227
Aroldis Chapman (W)BOS1.01002
Greg Weissert (S)BOS1.00002
Jacob LopezATH5.17128
Jose Suarez (L)ATH1.01100

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +3
BOS +3
12345678910
largest lead: ATH 1 · BOS 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 57%, ATH 43% · Updated Jul 29

Expected margin
BOS by 1.4
Expected score
BOS 5.7 – 4.2 ATH
Expected total
9.9
Red SoxThe matchupAthletics
−134Our fair odds+134
5.7Expected runs4.2
+0.11Power rating−0.24
4.2Runs / game4.4
3.8Allowed / game5.6
8.1Hits / game8.3
0.94Home runs / game1.22
3.0Walks drawn / game3.4
55−51Season record45−62
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · ATH chance
Our model fair57.4%42.6%
Kalshi60.7%43.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox−13457%−15460.7%———
ATHAthletics+13443%+12943.7%———
SpreadBOS by 1.4
BOSBoston Red Sox−1.4our margin————
ATHAthletics+1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.9
Over9.9our total————
Under9.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 1.4 expected
Boston Red Sox by 16 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 15 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 14 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 10%Athletics by 1 run: 15%Athletics by 2 runs: 8%Athletics by 3 runs: 5%Athletics by 4 runs: 4%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 7 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 16 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byATH wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more49%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more38%
Athletics wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.9 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.565%
Total over 9.547%
Total over 11.532%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSPatrick Sandoval SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 3.21 ERA, 13 Kstarted
ATHJacob Lopez SP · last 3 starts: 11.0 IP, 1.64 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·ATH
Jul 28 at ATH
last game
Jul 28 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 106+ games
BOS·ATH
+0.11
rating (0 = average)
−0.24
4.2
runs / game
4.4
3.8
runs allowed / game
5.6
55−51
season record
45−62
25−29
home record
21−31
30−22
away record
24−31
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.1
hits / game
8.3
0.94
home runs / game
1.22
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.45
errors / game
0.43

Rating Trend

BOS · ATH · 123 days
Boston Red SoxAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 5−5
Jul 28at ATHATH 4 − 3
Jul 27at ATHBOS 4 − 2
Sep 18, 2025at BOSATH 5 − 3
Sep 17, 2025at BOSBOS 5 − 4
Sep 16, 2025at BOSATH 2 − 1
Sep 10, 2025at ATHATH 5 − 4
Sep 9, 2025at ATHBOS 6 − 0
Sep 8, 2025at ATHBOS 7 − 0
Jul 11, 2024at BOSBOS 7 − 0
Jul 10, 2024at BOSATH 5 − 2

BOS · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Jul 28at ATH3 − 4L
Jul 27at ATH4 − 2W
Jul 26vs TOR6 − 1W
Jul 25vs TOR0 − 6L
Jul 24vs TOR6 − 4W
Jul 22vs BAL1 − 5L
Jul 22vs BAL6 − 3W
Jul 20vs BAL6 − 5W
Jul 19vs TB6 − 1W
Jul 18vs TB7 − 6W

ATH · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jul 28vs BOS4 − 3W
Jul 27vs BOS2 − 4L
Jul 26at MIN8 − 11L
Jul 25at MIN0 − 2L
Jul 24at MIN2 − 0W
Jul 22at ARI5 − 15L
Jul 21at ARI5 − 6L
Jul 20at ARI5 − 2W
Jul 19vs WSH2 − 5L
Jul 18vs WSH15 − 1W