bayesRatings

Red Sox at Athletics

MLB · Thursday, Jul 30 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final BOS 5 – ATH 4
← MLB / Jul 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS000030020582
ATH001201000491
Team box
BOS·ATH
8
hits
9
2
home runs
0
2
walks
2
9
strikeouts
8
118
pitches thrown
124
2
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Willson ContrerasBOS2-3111
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS2-4002
Wilyer AbreuBOS1-4111
Jacob WilsonATH2-4001
Lawrence ButlerATH2-4201
Jonah HeimATH2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sonny Gray (W)BOS7.07425
Aroldis Chapman (S)BOS1.01002
Mason BarnettATH5.04316
Luis Medina (L)ATH1.02201

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +3
BOS +3
123456789
largest lead: ATH 3 · BOS 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 58%, ATH 42% · Updated Jul 30

Expected margin
BOS by 1.4
Expected score
BOS 5.6 – 4.2 ATH
Expected total
9.8
Red SoxThe matchupAthletics
−136Our fair odds+136
5.6Expected runs4.2
+0.12Power rating−0.25
4.2Runs / game4.4
3.7Allowed / game5.6
8.1Hits / game8.3
0.95Home runs / game1.23
3.0Walks drawn / game3.4
56−51Season record45−63
7−3Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · ATH chance
Our model fair57.6%42.4%
Kalshi66.6%37.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox−13658%−19966.6%———
ATHAthletics+13642%+16637.6%———
SpreadBOS by 1.4
BOSBoston Red Sox−1.4our margin————
ATHAthletics+1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.8
Over9.8our total————
Under9.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Boston Red Sox by 1.4 expected
Boston Red Sox by 16 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 15 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 14 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 3%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 6%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 8%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 10%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 10%Athletics by 1 run: 15%Athletics by 2 runs: 8%Athletics by 3 runs: 5%Athletics by 4 runs: 4%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 7 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 16 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byATH wins by →
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more49%
Boston Red Sox wins by 3 or more38%
Athletics wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.8 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.564%
Total over 9.546%
Total over 11.531%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSSonny Gray SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.71 ERA, 11 Kstarted
ATHMason Barnett RP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 5.40 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·ATH
Jul 29 at ATH
last game
Jul 29 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 107+ games
BOS·ATH
+0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.25
4.2
runs / game
4.4
3.7
runs allowed / game
5.6
56−51
season record
45−63
25−29
home record
21−32
31−22
away record
24−31
W1
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
3−7
8.1
hits / game
8.3
0.95
home runs / game
1.23
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.47
errors / game
0.44

Rating Trend

BOS · ATH · 124 days
Boston Red SoxAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 4−6
Jul 29at ATHBOS 4 − 2
Jul 28at ATHATH 4 − 3
Jul 27at ATHBOS 4 − 2
Sep 18, 2025at BOSATH 5 − 3
Sep 17, 2025at BOSBOS 5 − 4
Sep 16, 2025at BOSATH 2 − 1
Sep 10, 2025at ATHATH 5 − 4
Sep 9, 2025at ATHBOS 6 − 0
Sep 8, 2025at ATHBOS 7 − 0
Jul 11, 2024at BOSBOS 7 − 0

BOS · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jul 29at ATH4 − 2W
Jul 28at ATH3 − 4L
Jul 27at ATH4 − 2W
Jul 26vs TOR6 − 1W
Jul 25vs TOR0 − 6L
Jul 24vs TOR6 − 4W
Jul 22vs BAL1 − 5L
Jul 22vs BAL6 − 3W
Jul 20vs BAL6 − 5W
Jul 19vs TB6 − 1W

ATH · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jul 29vs BOS2 − 4L
Jul 28vs BOS4 − 3W
Jul 27vs BOS2 − 4L
Jul 26at MIN8 − 11L
Jul 25at MIN0 − 2L
Jul 24at MIN2 − 0W
Jul 22at ARI5 − 15L
Jul 21at ARI5 − 6L
Jul 20at ARI5 − 2W
Jul 19vs WSH2 − 5L