bayesRatings

Tigers at Athletics

MLB · Saturday, Aug 1 · 8:40 PM CT · Sutter Health Park · Final DET 8 – ATH 6
← MLB / Aug 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
DET2000221108150
ATH0011000316150
Team box
DET·ATH
15
hits
15
3
home runs
1
2
walks
3
11
strikeouts
9
145
pitches thrown
183
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Henry BolteATH3-4213
Kevin McGonigleDET3-4212
Gleyber TorresDET2-5212
Max ClarkDET2-5112
Lawrence ButlerATH2-5101
Tommy WhiteATH3-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Framber Valdez (W)DET7.09226
Kenley Jansen (S)DET1.02102
Jack Perkins (L)ATH5.19619

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ATH +6
DET +6
123456789
largest lead: ATH 0 · DET 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was DET 57%, ATH 43% · Updated Aug 1

Expected margin
DET by 1.4
Expected score
DET 5.7 – 4.3 ATH
Expected total
10.0
TigersThe matchupAthletics
−130Our fair odds+130
5.7Expected runs4.3
+0.04Power rating−0.28
4.4Runs / game4.4
4.0Allowed / game5.7
8.0Hits / game8.3
1.22Home runs / game1.21
3.5Walks drawn / game3.4
52−58Season record45−65
5−5Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
DET chance · ATH chance
Our model fair56.5%43.5%
Kalshi64.6%39.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
DETDetroit Tigers−13057%−18364.6%———
ATHAthletics+13043%+15239.6%———
SpreadDET by 1.4
DETDetroit Tigers−1.4our margin————
ATHAthletics+1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.0
Over10.0our total————
Under10.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Detroit Tigers by 1.4 expected
Detroit Tigers by 16 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 15 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 14 runs: <1%Detroit Tigers by 13 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 12 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 11 runs: 1%Detroit Tigers by 10 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 9 runs: 2%Detroit Tigers by 8 runs: 3%Detroit Tigers by 7 runs: 4%Detroit Tigers by 6 runs: 5%Detroit Tigers by 5 runs: 6%Detroit Tigers by 4 runs: 7%Detroit Tigers by 3 runs: 8%Detroit Tigers by 2 runs: 10%Detroit Tigers by 1 run: 10%Athletics by 1 run: 15%Athletics by 2 runs: 8%Athletics by 3 runs: 5%Athletics by 4 runs: 4%Athletics by 5 runs: 3%Athletics by 6 runs: 2%Athletics by 7 runs: 1%Athletics by 8 runs: 1%Athletics by 9 runs: 1%Athletics by 10 runs: <1%Athletics by 11 runs: <1%Athletics by 12 runs: <1%Athletics by 13 runs: <1%Athletics by 14 runs: <1%Athletics by 15 runs: <1%Athletics by 16 runs: <1%
← DET wins byATH wins by →
Detroit Tigers wins by 2 or more49%
Detroit Tigers wins by 3 or more39%
Athletics wins by 2 or more27%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.0 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.558%
Total over 10.541%
Total over 12.527%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
DETFramber Valdez SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 6.39 ERA, 14 Kstarted
ATHJack Perkins SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 7.53 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
DET·ATH
Jul 31 at ATH
last game
Jul 31 vs DET
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 110+ games
DET·ATH
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
−0.28
4.4
runs / game
4.4
4.0
runs allowed / game
5.7
52−58
season record
45−65
30−27
home record
21−34
22−31
away record
24−31
W1
streak
L3
5−5
last 10
2−8
8.0
hits / game
8.3
1.22
home runs / game
1.21
3.5
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
8.7
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.45
errors / game
0.45

Rating Trend

DET · ATH · 126 days
Detroit TigersAthletics
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ATH 4−6
Jul 31at ATHDET 13 − 1
Jul 9at DETDET 4 − 1
Jul 8at DETDET 6 − 1
Jul 7at DETDET 6 − 2
Aug 27, 2025at ATHATH 7 − 0
Aug 26, 2025at ATHATH 7 − 6
Aug 25, 2025at ATHATH 8 − 3
Jun 26, 2025at DETDET 8 − 0
Jun 25, 2025at DETATH 3 − 0
Jun 24, 2025at DETDET 11 − 4

DET · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jul 31at ATH13 − 1W
Jul 29vs BAL9 − 10L
Jul 28vs BAL14 − 0W
Jul 27vs BAL5 − 8L
Jul 26vs KC4 − 5L
Jul 25vs KC2 − 3L
Jul 24vs KC2 − 1W
Jul 23vs KC4 − 3W
Jul 22at CHC5 − 1W
Jul 21at CHC2 − 11L

ATH · Last 10

2−8 · streak L3
Jul 31vs DET1 − 13L
Jul 30vs BOS4 − 5L
Jul 29vs BOS2 − 4L
Jul 28vs BOS4 − 3W
Jul 27vs BOS2 − 4L
Jul 26at MIN8 − 11L
Jul 25at MIN0 − 2L
Jul 24at MIN2 − 0W
Jul 22at ARI5 − 15L
Jul 21at ARI5 − 6L