bayesRatings

Rockies at Diamondbacks

MLB · Tuesday, Aug 11 · 8:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final COL 3 – ARI 2
← MLB / Aug 11

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL000002100360
ARI200000000280
Team box
COL·ARI
6
hits
8
1
home runs
2
2
walks
0
7
strikeouts
7
137
pitches thrown
123
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ketel MarteARI2-4111
Kyle KarrosCOL1-3112
Corbin CarrollARI1-4111
Nolan ArenadoARI2-4000
Tim TawaARI2-4000
Cole CarriggCOL2-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tomoyuki Sugano (W)COL6.06205
Jordan Romano (S)COL1.01001
Mitch BrattARI6.04214
Kevin Ginkel (L)ARI1.01102

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +3
COL +3
123456789
largest lead: ARI 2 · COL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 36%, ARI 64% · Updated Aug 11

Expected margin
ARI by 1.4
Expected score
ARI 5.8 – 4.4 COL
Expected total
10.2
RockiesThe matchupDiamondbacks
+180Our fair odds−180
4.4Expected runs5.8
−0.46Power rating+0.06
4.8Runs / game4.5
5.8Allowed / game4.4
8.7Hits / game8.1
1.13Home runs / game0.96
3.1Walks drawn / game3.3
46−73Season record64−56
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · ARI chance
Our model fair35.7%64.3%
Kalshi39.6%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+18036%+15239.6%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−18064%−18364.6%———
SpreadARI by 1.4
COLColorado Rockies+1.4our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.2
Over10.2our total————
Under10.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Arizona Diamondbacks by 1.4 expected
Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 16%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 8%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 15 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 16 runs: <1%
← COL wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more48%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more38%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.560%
Total over 10.543%
Total over 12.529%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLTomoyuki Sugano SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.18 ERA, 10 Kstarted
ARIMitch Bratt SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.18 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·ARI
Aug 10 at ARI
last game
Aug 10 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
5th straight road game
home / road
9th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 119+ games
COL·ARI
−0.46
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
4.8
runs / game
4.5
5.8
runs allowed / game
4.4
46−73
season record
64−56
27−32
home record
36−25
19−41
away record
28−31
L2
streak
W2
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.7
hits / game
8.1
1.13
home runs / game
0.96
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
6.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.8
0.64
errors / game
0.37

Rating Trend

COL · ARI · 136 days
Colorado RockiesArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 6−4
Aug 10at ARIARI 9 − 0
May 24at ARIARI 9 − 1
May 23at ARIARI 5 − 4
May 22at ARICOL 3 − 2
May 21at ARIARI 2 − 1
May 17at COLARI 8 − 6
May 16at COLCOL 4 − 2
May 15at COLARI 9 − 1
Aug 17, 2025at COLCOL 6 − 5
Aug 16, 2025at COLCOL 10 − 7

COL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L2
Aug 10at ARI0 − 9L
Aug 9at STL4 − 7L
Aug 8at STL8 − 6W
Aug 7at STL2 − 3L
Aug 5vs TB0 − 4L
Aug 4vs TB7 − 9L
Aug 3vs TB9 − 13L
Aug 2vs KC8 − 1W
Aug 1vs KC12 − 6W
Jul 31vs KC3 − 1W

ARI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Aug 10vs COL9 − 0W
Aug 9vs LAD4 − 2W
Aug 8vs LAD1 − 2L
Aug 7vs LAD4 − 3W
Aug 6vs SD1 − 5L
Aug 5vs SD10 − 4W
Aug 4vs SD4 − 9L
Aug 3vs SD5 − 1W
Aug 2at CLE0 − 5L
Aug 1at CLE12 − 8W