bayesRatings

Padres at Diamondbacks

MLB · Thursday, Aug 6 · 8:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final SD 5 – ARI 1
← MLB / Aug 6

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD1020011005120
ARI001000000180
Team box
SD·ARI
12
hits
8
0
home runs
0
3
walks
1
4
strikeouts
10
146
pitches thrown
159
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Gabriel MorenoARI3-4001
Ty FranceSD2-4001
Luis RengifoSD3-5000
Jackson MerrillSD2-5101
Xander BogaertsSD2-3000
Freddy FerminSD1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Walker BuehlerSD4.06113
Bradgley Rodriguez (W)SD2.00001
Kohl Drake (L)ARI3.26311

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +4
SD +4
123456789
largest lead: ARI 0 · SD 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 48%, ARI 52% · Updated Aug 6

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ARI 4.6 – 4.5 SD
Expected total
9.2
PadresThe matchupDiamondbacks
+107Our fair odds−107
4.5Expected runs4.6
+0.05Power rating+0.05
4.2Runs / game4.6
4.4Allowed / game4.5
7.7Hits / game8.1
1.06Home runs / game0.97
3.4Walks drawn / game3.3
59−56Season record61−54
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · ARI chance
Our model fair48.3%51.7%
Kalshi52.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres+10748%−11252.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−10752%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
SDSan Diego Padres+0.1our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 9%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 13%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 15%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%
← SD wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more37%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more27%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDWalker Buehler SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 4.11 ERA, 11 Kstarted
ARIKohl Drake P · last 3 starts: 13.0 IP, 4.85 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·ARI
Aug 5 at ARI
last game
Aug 5 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 115+ games
SD·ARI
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.2
runs / game
4.6
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.5
59−56
season record
61−54
32−25
home record
33−23
27−31
away record
28−31
L1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
6−4
7.7
hits / game
8.1
1.06
home runs / game
0.97
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
8.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.8
0.40
errors / game
0.38

Rating Trend

SD · ARI · 131 days
San Diego PadresArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 5−5
Aug 5at ARIARI 10 − 4
Aug 4at ARISD 9 − 4
Aug 3at ARIARI 5 − 1
Jul 9at SDARI 3 − 1
Jul 8at SDSD 10 − 4
Jul 7at SDSD 4 − 1
Jul 6at SDARI 8 − 0
Apr 26at ARIARI 12 − 7
Apr 25at ARISD 6 − 4
Sep 28, 2025at SDSD 12 − 4

SD · Last 10

7−3 · streak L1
Aug 5at ARI4 − 10L
Aug 4at ARI9 − 4W
Aug 3at ARI1 − 5L
Aug 2vs SF5 − 4W
Aug 1vs SF6 − 5W
Jul 31vs SF7 − 0W
Jul 30vs SF1 − 4L
Jul 29vs COL3 − 1W
Jul 28vs COL8 − 7W
Jul 26at MIA5 − 3W

ARI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Aug 5vs SD10 − 4W
Aug 4vs SD4 − 9L
Aug 3vs SD5 − 1W
Aug 2at CLE0 − 5L
Aug 1at CLE12 − 8W
Jul 31at CLE4 − 1W
Jul 29at PIT3 − 0W
Jul 28at PIT8 − 7W
Jul 27at PIT2 − 3L
Jul 26at WSH7 − 10L