bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Guardians

MLB · Sunday, Aug 2 · 12:40 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final ARI 0 – CLE 5
← MLB / Aug 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI000000000020
CLE00203000582
Team box
ARI·CLE
2
hits
8
0
home runs
1
5
walks
4
13
strikeouts
8
127
pitches thrown
161
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Chase DeLauterCLE2-4103
Patrick BaileyCLE1-3111
Kyle ManzardoCLE1-4001
Geraldo PerdomoARI1-3000
Tim TawaARI1-4000
Jose RamirezCLE1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Merrill Kelly (L)ARI5.08545
Gavin Williams (W)CLE5.210110

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +5
ARI +5
123456789
largest lead: CLE 5 · ARI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 50%, CLE 50% · Updated Aug 2

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ARI 4.0 – 3.9 CLE
Expected total
7.9
DiamondbacksThe matchupGuardians
+100Our fair odds−100
4.0Expected runs3.9
+0.05Power rating−0.00
4.6Runs / game3.9
4.5Allowed / game4.1
8.2Hits / game7.6
0.96Home runs / game0.96
3.3Walks drawn / game3.6
59−52Season record56−56
7−3Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · CLE chance
Our model fair49.9%50.1%
Kalshi39.6%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+10050%+15239.6%———
CLECleveland Guardians−10050%−18364.6%———
Spreadabout even
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.1our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.9
Over7.9our total————
Under7.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 11%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 14%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 16%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byCLE wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more36%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more25%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.548%
Total over 9.530%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIMerrill Kelly SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 1.72 ERA, 12 Kstarted
CLEGavin Williams SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 3.15 ERA, 34 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·CLE
Aug 1 at CLE
last game
Aug 1 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
10th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 111+ games
ARI·CLE
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
4.6
runs / game
3.9
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.1
59−52
season record
56−56
31−22
home record
27−28
28−30
away record
29−28
W4
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
2−8
8.2
hits / game
7.6
0.96
home runs / game
0.96
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
6.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.38
errors / game
0.52

Rating Trend

ARI · CLE · 127 days
Arizona DiamondbacksCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 2−8
Aug 1at CLEARI 12 − 8
Jul 31at CLEARI 4 − 1
Aug 20, 2025at ARIARI 3 − 2
Aug 19, 2025at ARIARI 6 − 5
Aug 18, 2025at ARICLE 3 − 1
Aug 7, 2024at CLEARI 5 − 3
Aug 7, 2024at CLEARI 7 − 3
Aug 5, 2024at CLEARI 7 − 6
Jun 18, 2023at ARICLE 12 − 3
Jun 17, 2023at ARIARI 6 − 3

ARI · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Aug 1at CLE12 − 8W
Jul 31at CLE4 − 1W
Jul 29at PIT3 − 0W
Jul 28at PIT8 − 7W
Jul 27at PIT2 − 3L
Jul 26at WSH7 − 10L
Jul 25at WSH3 − 5L
Jul 24at WSH3 − 2W
Jul 23at STL10 − 6W
Jul 22vs ATH15 − 5W

CLE · Last 10

2−8 · streak L2
Aug 1vs ARI8 − 12L
Jul 31vs ARI1 − 4L
Jul 29at CIN6 − 1W
Jul 28at CIN0 − 2L
Jul 28at CIN6 − 5W
Jul 26at TB0 − 1L
Jul 25at TB0 − 3L
Jul 24at TB3 − 11L
Jul 23vs MIN1 − 3L
Jul 22vs MIN6 − 10L