bayesRatings

Guardians at Reds

MLB · Tuesday, Jul 28 · 6:10 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final CLE 0 – CIN 2
← MLB / Jul 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE000000000030
CIN10001000230
Team box
CLE·CIN
3
hits
3
0
home runs
1
4
walks
2
7
strikeouts
15
120
pitches thrown
135
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
JJ BledayCIN1-3111
Dane MyersCIN1-2100
Ivan JohnsonCIN1-2000
Austin HedgesCLE1-3000
Gabriel AriasCLE1-4000
Travis BazzanaCLE1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Gavin Williams (L)CLE7.032112
Caleb FergusonCIN1.21011
Jose Franco (W)CIN3.21022
Emilio Pagan (S)CIN1.01002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +3
CLE +3
123456789
largest lead: CIN 2 · CLE 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 50%, CIN 50% · Updated Jul 28

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CIN 4.2 – 4.1 CLE
Expected total
8.3
GuardiansThe matchupReds
−100Our fair odds+100
4.1Expected runs4.2
+0.00Power rating−0.06
3.9Runs / game4.2
4.1Allowed / game4.8
7.6Hits / game7.7
0.97Home runs / game1.32
3.6Walks drawn / game3.6
54−53Season record49−55
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · CIN chance
Our model fair50.0%50.0%
Kalshi59.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians−10050%−14859.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds+10050%+11945.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians+0.1our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 16%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 14%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byCIN wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more36%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more26%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEGavin Williams SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 3.15 ERA, 33 Kstarted
CINCaleb Ferguson RP · last 3 starts: 2.2 IP, 13.50 ERA, 3 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·CIN
Jul 28 at CIN
last game
Jul 28 vs CLE
same day
days of rest
same day
7
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 104+ games
CLE·CIN
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
3.9
runs / game
4.2
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.8
54−53
season record
49−55
27−26
home record
22−28
27−27
away record
27−27
L5
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
6−4
7.6
hits / game
7.7
0.97
home runs / game
1.32
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.52
errors / game
0.55

Rating Trend

CLE · CIN · 122 days
Cleveland GuardiansCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 6−4
May 17at CLECLE 10 − 3
May 16at CLECLE 7 − 4
May 15at CLECIN 7 − 6
Jun 11, 2025at CLECLE 11 − 2
Jun 10, 2025at CLECIN 1 − 0
Jun 9, 2025at CLECIN 7 − 4
May 18, 2025at CINCIN 3 − 1
May 17, 2025at CINCIN 4 − 1
May 16, 2025at CINCIN 5 − 4
Sep 25, 2024at CLECLE 5 − 2

CLE · Last 10

3−7 · streak L5
Jul 26at TB0 − 1L
Jul 25at TB0 − 3L
Jul 24at TB3 − 11L
Jul 23vs MIN1 − 3L
Jul 22vs MIN6 − 10L
Jul 21vs MIN5 − 2W
Jul 20vs MIN13 − 4W
Jul 19vs PIT1 − 7L
Jul 18vs PIT5 − 3W
Jul 18vs PIT1 − 7L

CIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jul 26at STL5 − 3W
Jul 25at STL0 − 7L
Jul 24at STL4 − 2W
Jul 22at SEA5 − 3W
Jul 21at SEA4 − 2W
Jul 20at SEA0 − 8L
Jul 19at COL9 − 6W
Jul 18at COL3 − 10L
Jul 17at COL7 − 2W
Jul 12vs CHC4 − 8L