bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Pirates

MLB · Monday, Jul 27 · 5:40 PM CT · PNC Park · Final ARI 2 – PIT 3
← MLB / Jul 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
ARI0000020000281
PIT0000010101391
Team box
ARI·PIT
8
hits
9
0
home runs
0
2
walks
1
8
strikeouts
9
152
pitches thrown
165
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Max KeplerARI3-5002
Brandon LowePIT3-5102
Bryan ReynoldsPIT1-4001
Nick GonzalesPIT2-4000
Ketel MarteARI1-4000
Ildemaro VargasARI1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Merrill KellyARI5.24016
Taylor Clarke (L)ARI1.13000
Mitch KellerPIT5.16214
Mason Montgomery (W)PIT1.00011

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +3
ARI +3
12345678910
largest lead: PIT 1 · ARI 2lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 49%, PIT 51% · Updated Jul 27

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ARI 4.8 – 4.7 PIT
Expected total
9.5
DiamondbacksThe matchupPirates
+105Our fair odds−105
4.8Expected runs4.7
+0.03Power rating+0.02
4.5Runs / game5.2
4.5Allowed / game4.8
8.1Hits / game9.0
0.97Home runs / game1.27
3.3Walks drawn / game3.7
55−51Season record54−52
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · PIT chance
Our model fair48.9%51.1%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+10549%−10350.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates−10551%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.1our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 11%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 15%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byPIT wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more38%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more28%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIMerrill Kelly SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 2.12 ERA, 12 Kstarted
PITMitch Keller SP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 5.14 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·PIT
Jul 26 at WSH
last game
Jul 26 vs CHC
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
5th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 106+ games
ARI·PIT
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.5
runs / game
5.2
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.8
55−51
season record
54−52
31−22
home record
28−26
24−29
away record
26−26
L2
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
9.0
0.97
home runs / game
1.27
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.7
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
6.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.38
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

ARI · PIT · 121 days
Arizona DiamondbacksPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 6−4
May 7at ARIPIT 4 − 2
May 6at ARIPIT 1 − 0
May 5at ARIARI 9 − 0
Jul 27, 2025at PITPIT 6 − 0
Jul 26, 2025at PITPIT 2 − 0
Jul 25, 2025at PITARI 1 − 0
May 28, 2025at ARIPIT 10 − 1
May 27, 2025at ARIPIT 9 − 6
May 26, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 0
Aug 4, 2024at PITARI 6 − 5

ARI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Jul 26at WSH7 − 10L
Jul 25at WSH3 − 5L
Jul 24at WSH3 − 2W
Jul 23at STL10 − 6W
Jul 22vs ATH15 − 5W
Jul 21vs ATH6 − 5W
Jul 20vs ATH2 − 5L
Jul 19vs STL8 − 7W
Jul 18vs STL5 − 3W
Jul 17vs STL4 − 5L

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jul 26vs CHC8 − 7W
Jul 25vs CHC0 − 11L
Jul 24vs CHC2 − 3L
Jul 22at NYY0 − 2L
Jul 22at NYY5 − 3W
Jul 20at NYY5 − 8L
Jul 19at CLE7 − 1W
Jul 18at CLE3 − 5L
Jul 18at CLE7 − 1W
Jul 12vs MIL14 − 5W