bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Pirates

MLB · Tuesday, Jul 28 · 5:40 PM CT · PNC Park · Final ARI 8 – PIT 7
← MLB / Jul 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789101112THE
ARI1211010001018151
PIT0000000331007144
Team box
ARI·PIT
15
hits
14
0
home runs
2
3
walks
3
11
strikeouts
10
187
pitches thrown
224
1
errors
4
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brandon LowePIT2-5112
James McCannARI4-6101
Nolan ArenadoARI3-5001
Bryan ReynoldsPIT1-4211
Gabriel MorenoARI1-6102
Marcell OzunaPIT2-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Brandon PfaadtARI7.06014
Gerardo Carrillo (W)ARI2.00013
Bubba ChandlerPIT4.07313
Wilber Dotel (L)PIT2.02010

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +6
ARI +6
123456789101112
largest lead: PIT 0 · ARI 6lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 49%, PIT 51% · Updated Jul 28

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ARI 4.8 – 4.7 PIT
Expected total
9.5
DiamondbacksThe matchupPirates
+106Our fair odds−106
4.8Expected runs4.7
+0.02Power rating+0.02
4.5Runs / game5.2
4.5Allowed / game4.8
8.1Hits / game9.0
0.96Home runs / game1.26
3.3Walks drawn / game3.6
55−52Season record55−52
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · PIT chance
Our model fair48.6%51.4%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+10649%−10751.8%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates−10651%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.1our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 11%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 16%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byPIT wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more38%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more28%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIBrandon Pfaadt SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 3.24 ERA, 6 Kstarted
PITBubba Chandler SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 3.60 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·PIT
Jul 27 at PIT
last game
Jul 27 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 107+ games
ARI·PIT
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.5
runs / game
5.2
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.8
55−52
season record
55−52
31−22
home record
29−26
24−30
away record
26−26
L3
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.1
hits / game
9.0
0.96
home runs / game
1.26
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
6.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.38
errors / game
0.58

Rating Trend

ARI · PIT · 122 days
Arizona DiamondbacksPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 7−3
Jul 27at PITPIT 3 − 2
May 7at ARIPIT 4 − 2
May 6at ARIPIT 1 − 0
May 5at ARIARI 9 − 0
Jul 27, 2025at PITPIT 6 − 0
Jul 26, 2025at PITPIT 2 − 0
Jul 25, 2025at PITARI 1 − 0
May 28, 2025at ARIPIT 10 − 1
May 27, 2025at ARIPIT 9 − 6
May 26, 2025at ARIARI 5 − 0

ARI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L3
Jul 27at PIT2 − 3L
Jul 26at WSH7 − 10L
Jul 25at WSH3 − 5L
Jul 24at WSH3 − 2W
Jul 23at STL10 − 6W
Jul 22vs ATH15 − 5W
Jul 21vs ATH6 − 5W
Jul 20vs ATH2 − 5L
Jul 19vs STL8 − 7W
Jul 18vs STL5 − 3W

PIT · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jul 27vs ARI3 − 2W
Jul 26vs CHC8 − 7W
Jul 25vs CHC0 − 11L
Jul 24vs CHC2 − 3L
Jul 22at NYY0 − 2L
Jul 22at NYY5 − 3W
Jul 20at NYY5 − 8L
Jul 19at CLE7 − 1W
Jul 18at CLE3 − 5L
Jul 18at CLE7 − 1W