bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Guardians

MLB · Friday, Jul 31 · 6:10 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final ARI 4 – CLE 1
← MLB / Jul 31

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI000000040460
CLE100000000131
Team box
ARI·CLE
6
hits
3
0
home runs
0
2
walks
5
4
strikeouts
5
127
pitches thrown
127
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Geraldo PerdomoARI2-4101
Ketel MarteARI1-3001
Gabriel MorenoARI1-3001
Ryan WaldschmidtARI2-3100
Rhys HoskinsCLE1-1001
Steven KwanCLE2-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Mitch BrattARI5.03142
Jonathan Loaisiga (W)ARI1.00011
Brandyn Garcia (S)ARI1.00001
Tanner Bibee (L)CLE7.13213

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +3
ARI +3
123456789
largest lead: CLE 1 · ARI 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 49%, CLE 51% · Updated Jul 31

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 3.9 – 3.9 ARI
Expected total
7.8
DiamondbacksThe matchupGuardians
+104Our fair odds−104
3.9Expected runs3.9
+0.04Power rating+0.01
4.5Runs / game3.9
4.5Allowed / game4.1
8.1Hits / game7.6
0.95Home runs / game0.96
3.3Walks drawn / game3.6
57−52Season record56−54
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · CLE chance
Our model fair49.1%50.9%
Kalshi45.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+10449%+11945.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−10451%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.1our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.8
Over7.8our total————
Under7.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 15%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 15%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more35%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more25%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.8 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 9.529%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIMitch Bratt SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 7.11 ERA, 7 Kstarted
CLETanner Bibee SP · last 3 starts: 18.2 IP, 2.89 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·CLE
Jul 29 at PIT
last game
Jul 29 at CIN
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
8th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 109+ games
ARI·CLE
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
4.5
runs / game
3.9
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.1
57−52
season record
56−54
31−22
home record
27−26
26−30
away record
29−28
W2
streak
W1
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.1
hits / game
7.6
0.95
home runs / game
0.96
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.3
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
6.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.39
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

ARI · CLE · 125 days
Arizona DiamondbacksCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 3−7
Aug 20, 2025at ARIARI 3 − 2
Aug 19, 2025at ARIARI 6 − 5
Aug 18, 2025at ARICLE 3 − 1
Aug 7, 2024at CLEARI 5 − 3
Aug 7, 2024at CLEARI 7 − 3
Aug 5, 2024at CLEARI 7 − 6
Jun 18, 2023at ARICLE 12 − 3
Jun 17, 2023at ARIARI 6 − 3
Jun 16, 2023at ARIARI 5 − 1
Aug 3, 2022at CLECLE 7 − 4

ARI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Jul 29at PIT3 − 0W
Jul 28at PIT8 − 7W
Jul 27at PIT2 − 3L
Jul 26at WSH7 − 10L
Jul 25at WSH3 − 5L
Jul 24at WSH3 − 2W
Jul 23at STL10 − 6W
Jul 22vs ATH15 − 5W
Jul 21vs ATH6 − 5W
Jul 20vs ATH2 − 5L

CLE · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jul 29at CIN6 − 1W
Jul 28at CIN0 − 2L
Jul 28at CIN6 − 5W
Jul 26at TB0 − 1L
Jul 25at TB0 − 3L
Jul 24at TB3 − 11L
Jul 23vs MIN1 − 3L
Jul 22vs MIN6 − 10L
Jul 21vs MIN5 − 2W
Jul 20vs MIN13 − 4W