bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Pirates

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 29 · 11:35 AM CT · PNC Park · Final ARI 3 – PIT 0
← MLB / Jul 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI000201000360
PIT000000000050
Team box
ARI·PIT
6
hits
5
1
home runs
0
2
walks
2
6
strikeouts
4
122
pitches thrown
107
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Gabriel MorenoARI1-3212
Max KeplerARI2-4001
Jared TrioloPIT2-3000
Ketel MarteARI1-4000
Ildemaro VargasARI1-2000
Corbin CarrollARI1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Eduardo Rodriguez (W)ARI8.05012
Brandyn Garcia (S)ARI1.00012
Jared Jones (L)PIT6.04325

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
PIT +3
ARI +3
123456789
largest lead: PIT 0 · ARI 3lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 49%, PIT 51% · Updated Jul 29

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ARI 4.8 – 4.8 PIT
Expected total
9.6
DiamondbacksThe matchupPirates
+104Our fair odds−104
4.8Expected runs4.8
+0.03Power rating+0.02
4.5Runs / game5.2
4.6Allowed / game4.8
8.1Hits / game9.1
0.95Home runs / game1.27
3.3Walks drawn / game3.6
56−52Season record55−53
6−4Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · PIT chance
Our model fair48.9%51.1%
Kalshi46.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:35 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+10449%+11446.7%———
PITPittsburgh Pirates−10451%−14258.7%———
Spreadabout even
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.1our margin————
PITPittsburgh Pirates+0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.6
Over9.6our total————
Under9.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 11%Pittsburgh Pirates by 1 run: 15%Pittsburgh Pirates by 2 runs: 9%Pittsburgh Pirates by 3 runs: 7%Pittsburgh Pirates by 4 runs: 5%Pittsburgh Pirates by 5 runs: 4%Pittsburgh Pirates by 6 runs: 3%Pittsburgh Pirates by 7 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 8 runs: 2%Pittsburgh Pirates by 9 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 10 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 11 runs: 1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 12 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 13 runs: <1%Pittsburgh Pirates by 14 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byPIT wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more38%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more28%
Pittsburgh Pirates wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.6 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.563%
Total over 9.545%
Total over 11.530%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIEduardo Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 5.52 ERA, 12 Kstarted
PITJared Jones SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 1.06 ERA, 22 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·PIT
Jul 28 at PIT
last game
Jul 28 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
7th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 108+ games
ARI·PIT
+0.03
rating (0 = average)
+0.02
4.5
runs / game
5.2
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.8
56−52
season record
55−53
31−22
home record
29−27
25−30
away record
26−26
W1
streak
L1
6−4
last 10
4−6
8.1
hits / game
9.1
0.95
home runs / game
1.27
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.3
batter strikeouts / game
9.5
6.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.39
errors / game
0.61

Rating Trend

ARI · PIT · 123 days
Arizona DiamondbacksPittsburgh Pirates
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · PIT 7−3
Jul 28at PITARI 8 − 7
Jul 27at PITPIT 3 − 2
May 7at ARIPIT 4 − 2
May 6at ARIPIT 1 − 0
May 5at ARIARI 9 − 0
Jul 27, 2025at PITPIT 6 − 0
Jul 26, 2025at PITPIT 2 − 0
Jul 25, 2025at PITARI 1 − 0
May 28, 2025at ARIPIT 10 − 1
May 27, 2025at ARIPIT 9 − 6

ARI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jul 28at PIT8 − 7W
Jul 27at PIT2 − 3L
Jul 26at WSH7 − 10L
Jul 25at WSH3 − 5L
Jul 24at WSH3 − 2W
Jul 23at STL10 − 6W
Jul 22vs ATH15 − 5W
Jul 21vs ATH6 − 5W
Jul 20vs ATH2 − 5L
Jul 19vs STL8 − 7W

PIT · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jul 28vs ARI7 − 8L
Jul 27vs ARI3 − 2W
Jul 26vs CHC8 − 7W
Jul 25vs CHC0 − 11L
Jul 24vs CHC2 − 3L
Jul 22at NYY0 − 2L
Jul 22at NYY5 − 3W
Jul 20at NYY5 − 8L
Jul 19at CLE7 − 1W
Jul 18at CLE3 − 5L