bayesRatings

Guardians at Reds

MLB · Tuesday, Jul 28 · 12:40 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final CLE 6 – CIN 5
← MLB / Jul 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE400010010690
CIN0014000005111
Team box
CLE·CIN
9
hits
11
1
home runs
1
3
walks
2
5
strikeouts
10
174
pitches thrown
146
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Sal StewartCIN2-3113
Kyle ManzardoCLE1-3114
Tyler StephensonCIN2-4101
Dane MyersCIN2-4000
Nathaniel LoweCIN2-4100
Elly De La CruzCIN2-5100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Slade CecconiCLE3.27412
Colin Holderman (W)CLE1.00001
Cade Smith (S)CLE1.00011
Chase BurnsCIN5.05124
Sam Moll (L)CIN1.02110

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +4
CLE +4
123456789
largest lead: CIN 1 · CLE 4lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 50%, CIN 50% · Updated Jul 28

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CIN 4.2 – 4.1 CLE
Expected total
8.3
GuardiansThe matchupReds
−100Our fair odds+100
4.1Expected runs4.2
+0.00Power rating−0.06
3.9Runs / game4.2
4.1Allowed / game4.8
7.6Hits / game7.7
0.97Home runs / game1.32
3.6Walks drawn / game3.6
54−53Season record49−55
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · CIN chance
Our model fair50.0%50.0%
Kalshi56.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians−10050%−13156.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds+10050%+10947.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians+0.1our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.3
Over8.3our total————
Under8.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 16%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 14%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 7%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byCIN wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more36%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more26%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.3 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.564%
Total over 8.544%
Total over 10.527%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLESlade Cecconi SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 7.42 ERA, 12 Kstarted
CINChase Burns SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 2.81 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·CIN
Jul 26 at TB
last game
Jul 26 at STL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
5
4th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 104+ games
CLE·CIN
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
3.9
runs / game
4.2
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.8
54−53
season record
49−55
27−26
home record
22−28
27−27
away record
27−27
L5
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
6−4
7.6
hits / game
7.7
0.97
home runs / game
1.32
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
9.1
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.1
0.52
errors / game
0.55

Rating Trend

CLE · CIN · 122 days
Cleveland GuardiansCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 6−4
May 17at CLECLE 10 − 3
May 16at CLECLE 7 − 4
May 15at CLECIN 7 − 6
Jun 11, 2025at CLECLE 11 − 2
Jun 10, 2025at CLECIN 1 − 0
Jun 9, 2025at CLECIN 7 − 4
May 18, 2025at CINCIN 3 − 1
May 17, 2025at CINCIN 4 − 1
May 16, 2025at CINCIN 5 − 4
Sep 25, 2024at CLECLE 5 − 2

CLE · Last 10

3−7 · streak L5
Jul 26at TB0 − 1L
Jul 25at TB0 − 3L
Jul 24at TB3 − 11L
Jul 23vs MIN1 − 3L
Jul 22vs MIN6 − 10L
Jul 21vs MIN5 − 2W
Jul 20vs MIN13 − 4W
Jul 19vs PIT1 − 7L
Jul 18vs PIT5 − 3W
Jul 18vs PIT1 − 7L

CIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jul 26at STL5 − 3W
Jul 25at STL0 − 7L
Jul 24at STL4 − 2W
Jul 22at SEA5 − 3W
Jul 21at SEA4 − 2W
Jul 20at SEA0 − 8L
Jul 19at COL9 − 6W
Jul 18at COL3 − 10L
Jul 17at COL7 − 2W
Jul 12vs CHC4 − 8L