bayesRatings

Guardians at Reds

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 29 · 6:10 PM CT · Great American Ball Park · Final CLE 6 – CIN 1
← MLB / Jul 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE0000402006130
CIN000001000161
Team box
CLE·CIN
13
hits
6
1
home runs
0
6
walks
4
6
strikeouts
16
174
pitches thrown
176
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kyle ManzardoCLE1-3112
Steven KwanCLE3-5101
Gabriel AriasCLE2-4101
Travis BazzanaCLE2-5101
Noelvi MarteCIN1-4001
Jose RamirezCLE2-6100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Joey CantilloCLE4.04018
Erik Sabrowski (W)CLE0.20002
Brady Singer (L)CIN4.17443

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CIN +5
CLE +5
123456789
largest lead: CIN 0 · CLE 5lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 50%, CIN 50% · Updated Jul 29

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CIN 4.2 – 4.0 CLE
Expected total
8.2
GuardiansThe matchupReds
−100Our fair odds+100
4.0Expected runs4.2
+0.00Power rating−0.06
3.9Runs / game4.1
4.1Allowed / game4.8
7.6Hits / game7.7
0.96Home runs / game1.31
3.6Walks drawn / game3.6
55−54Season record50−56
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · CIN chance
Our model fair50.0%50.0%
Kalshi58.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians−10050%−14258.7%———
CINCincinnati Reds+10050%+11945.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians+0.2our margin————
CINCincinnati Reds−0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.2
Over8.2our total————
Under8.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 17%Cincinnati Reds by 1 run: 13%Cincinnati Reds by 2 runs: 10%Cincinnati Reds by 3 runs: 8%Cincinnati Reds by 4 runs: 6%Cincinnati Reds by 5 runs: 4%Cincinnati Reds by 6 runs: 3%Cincinnati Reds by 7 runs: 2%Cincinnati Reds by 8 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 9 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 10 runs: 1%Cincinnati Reds by 11 runs: <1%Cincinnati Reds by 12 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byCIN wins by →
Cincinnati Reds wins by 2 or more37%
Cincinnati Reds wins by 3 or more27%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run30%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.2 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 8%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 12%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.563%
Total over 8.543%
Total over 10.526%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEJoey Cantillo SP · last 3 starts: 13.2 IP, 6.59 ERA, 20 Kstarted
CINBrady Singer SP · last 3 starts: 21.0 IP, 2.57 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·CIN
Jul 28 at CIN
last game
Jul 28 vs CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 106+ games
CLE·CIN
+0.00
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
3.9
runs / game
4.1
4.1
runs allowed / game
4.8
55−54
season record
50−56
27−26
home record
23−29
28−28
away record
27−27
L1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
6−4
7.6
hits / game
7.7
0.96
home runs / game
1.31
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
9.4
9.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.0
0.51
errors / game
0.55

Rating Trend

CLE · CIN · 123 days
Cleveland GuardiansCincinnati Reds
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CIN 6−4
Jul 28at CINCIN 2 − 0
Jul 28at CINCLE 6 − 5
May 17at CLECLE 10 − 3
May 16at CLECLE 7 − 4
May 15at CLECIN 7 − 6
Jun 11, 2025at CLECLE 11 − 2
Jun 10, 2025at CLECIN 1 − 0
Jun 9, 2025at CLECIN 7 − 4
May 18, 2025at CINCIN 3 − 1
May 17, 2025at CINCIN 4 − 1

CLE · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jul 28at CIN0 − 2L
Jul 28at CIN6 − 5W
Jul 26at TB0 − 1L
Jul 25at TB0 − 3L
Jul 24at TB3 − 11L
Jul 23vs MIN1 − 3L
Jul 22vs MIN6 − 10L
Jul 21vs MIN5 − 2W
Jul 20vs MIN13 − 4W
Jul 19vs PIT1 − 7L

CIN · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Jul 28vs CLE2 − 0W
Jul 28vs CLE5 − 6L
Jul 26at STL5 − 3W
Jul 25at STL0 − 7L
Jul 24at STL4 − 2W
Jul 22at SEA5 − 3W
Jul 21at SEA4 − 2W
Jul 20at SEA0 − 8L
Jul 19at COL9 − 6W
Jul 18at COL3 − 10L