bayesRatings

Diamondbacks at Guardians

MLB · Saturday, Aug 1 · 6:15 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final ARI 12 – CLE 8
← MLB / Aug 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ARI00002071212160
CLE2000000518141
Team box
ARI·CLE
16
hits
14
3
home runs
2
3
walks
2
8
strikeouts
10
201
pitches thrown
192
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Geraldo PerdomoARI4-6113
Corbin CarrollARI2-5213
James McCannARI3-4202
Steven KwanCLE3-5002
Nolan ArenadoARI2-4211
Rhys HoskinsCLE1-2112
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Kohl DrakeARI4.05216
Gerardo Carrillo (W)ARI2.01003
Parker MessickCLE4.16116
Hunter Gaddis (L)CLE0.22410

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +8
ARI +8
123456789
largest lead: CLE 2 · ARI 8lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ARI 49%, CLE 51% · Updated Aug 1

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 3.9 – 3.9 ARI
Expected total
7.8
DiamondbacksThe matchupGuardians
+103Our fair odds−103
3.9Expected runs3.9
+0.04Power rating+0.01
4.5Runs / game3.9
4.5Allowed / game4.1
8.1Hits / game7.6
0.95Home runs / game0.95
3.3Walks drawn / game3.6
58−52Season record56−55
7−3Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ARI chance · CLE chance
Our model fair49.4%50.6%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:15 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+10349%+14640.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−10351%−17563.6%———
Spreadabout even
ARIArizona DiamondbacksPKour margin————
CLECleveland GuardiansPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 7.8
Over7.8our total————
Under7.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 15%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 16%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 10%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%
← ARI wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more34%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more24%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more35%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.8 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.568%
Total over 7.547%
Total over 9.529%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ARIKohl Drake P · last 2 starts: 9.0 IP, 5.00 ERA, 6 Kstarted
CLEParker Messick SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 1.40 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ARI·CLE
Jul 31 at CLE
last game
Jul 31 vs ARI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
9th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 110+ games
ARI·CLE
+0.04
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
4.5
runs / game
3.9
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.1
58−52
season record
56−55
31−22
home record
27−27
27−30
away record
29−28
W3
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
3−7
8.1
hits / game
7.6
0.95
home runs / game
0.95
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.6
7.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
6.7
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.38
errors / game
0.51

Rating Trend

ARI · CLE · 126 days
Arizona DiamondbacksCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 2−8
Jul 31at CLEARI 4 − 1
Aug 20, 2025at ARIARI 3 − 2
Aug 19, 2025at ARIARI 6 − 5
Aug 18, 2025at ARICLE 3 − 1
Aug 7, 2024at CLEARI 5 − 3
Aug 7, 2024at CLEARI 7 − 3
Aug 5, 2024at CLEARI 7 − 6
Jun 18, 2023at ARICLE 12 − 3
Jun 17, 2023at ARIARI 6 − 3
Jun 16, 2023at ARIARI 5 − 1

ARI · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Jul 31at CLE4 − 1W
Jul 29at PIT3 − 0W
Jul 28at PIT8 − 7W
Jul 27at PIT2 − 3L
Jul 26at WSH7 − 10L
Jul 25at WSH3 − 5L
Jul 24at WSH3 − 2W
Jul 23at STL10 − 6W
Jul 22vs ATH15 − 5W
Jul 21vs ATH6 − 5W

CLE · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jul 31vs ARI1 − 4L
Jul 29at CIN6 − 1W
Jul 28at CIN0 − 2L
Jul 28at CIN6 − 5W
Jul 26at TB0 − 1L
Jul 25at TB0 − 3L
Jul 24at TB3 − 11L
Jul 23vs MIN1 − 3L
Jul 22vs MIN6 − 10L
Jul 21vs MIN5 − 2W