bayesRatings

Padres at Diamondbacks

MLB · Tuesday, Aug 4 · 8:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final SD 9 – ARI 4
← MLB / Aug 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD3300011019160
ARI000000400461
Team box
SD·ARI
16
hits
6
0
home runs
2
2
walks
2
6
strikeouts
3
124
pitches thrown
169
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Manny MachadoSD3-5104
Jackson MerrillSD3-5202
Nolan ArenadoARI1-4112
James McCannARI1-3112
Jake CronenworthSD3-5001
Xander BogaertsSD2-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Randy Vasquez (W)SD6.02011
Eduardo Rodriguez (L)ARI5.211504

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +8
SD +8
123456789
largest lead: ARI 0 · SD 8lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 48%, ARI 52% · Updated Aug 4

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ARI 4.6 – 4.5 SD
Expected total
9.1
PadresThe matchupDiamondbacks
+106Our fair odds−106
4.5Expected runs4.6
+0.05Power rating+0.05
4.2Runs / game4.5
4.3Allowed / game4.5
7.7Hits / game8.1
1.07Home runs / game0.96
3.4Walks drawn / game3.3
58−55Season record60−53
8−2Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · ARI chance
Our model fair48.5%51.5%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres+10648%+10548.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−10652%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
SDSan Diego Padres+0.1our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−0.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 5%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 13%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 15%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%
← SD wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more37%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more27%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDRandy Vasquez SP · last 3 starts: 9.0 IP, 11.00 ERA, 1 Kstarted
ARIEduardo Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 3.78 ERA, 9 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·ARI
Aug 3 at ARI
last game
Aug 3 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 113+ games
SD·ARI
+0.05
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.2
runs / game
4.5
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.5
58−55
season record
60−53
32−25
home record
32−22
26−30
away record
28−31
L1
streak
W1
8−2
last 10
6−4
7.7
hits / game
8.1
1.07
home runs / game
0.96
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.8
0.41
errors / game
0.38

Rating Trend

SD · ARI · 129 days
San Diego PadresArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 4−6
Aug 3at ARIARI 5 − 1
Jul 9at SDARI 3 − 1
Jul 8at SDSD 10 − 4
Jul 7at SDSD 4 − 1
Jul 6at SDARI 8 − 0
Apr 26at ARIARI 12 − 7
Apr 25at ARISD 6 − 4
Sep 28, 2025at SDSD 12 − 4
Sep 27, 2025at SDSD 5 − 1
Sep 26, 2025at SDSD 7 − 4

SD · Last 10

8−2 · streak L1
Aug 3at ARI1 − 5L
Aug 2vs SF5 − 4W
Aug 1vs SF6 − 5W
Jul 31vs SF7 − 0W
Jul 30vs SF1 − 4L
Jul 29vs COL3 − 1W
Jul 28vs COL8 − 7W
Jul 26at MIA5 − 3W
Jul 25at MIA7 − 2W
Jul 24at MIA4 − 2W

ARI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Aug 3vs SD5 − 1W
Aug 2at CLE0 − 5L
Aug 1at CLE12 − 8W
Jul 31at CLE4 − 1W
Jul 29at PIT3 − 0W
Jul 28at PIT8 − 7W
Jul 27at PIT2 − 3L
Jul 26at WSH7 − 10L
Jul 25at WSH3 − 5L
Jul 24at WSH3 − 2W