bayesRatings

Padres at Diamondbacks

MLB · Monday, Aug 3 · 8:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final SD 1 – ARI 5
← MLB / Aug 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SD000000100161
ARI00030002591
Team box
SD·ARI
6
hits
9
0
home runs
1
1
walks
5
5
strikeouts
7
158
pitches thrown
120
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Tim TawaARI3-4213
James McCannARI2-4001
Geraldo PerdomoARI2-3000
Luis CampusanoSD2-3000
Nolan ArenadoARI1-3100
Jorge BarrosaARI0-0001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael King (L)SD5.05345
Brandon Pfaadt (W)ARI6.25013

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +4
SD +4
123456789
largest lead: ARI 4 · SD 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SD 49%, ARI 51% · Updated Aug 3

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
ARI 4.5 – 4.5 SD
Expected total
9.1
PadresThe matchupDiamondbacks
+105Our fair odds−105
4.5Expected runs4.5
+0.06Power rating+0.04
4.2Runs / game4.5
4.3Allowed / game4.5
7.7Hits / game8.1
1.08Home runs / game0.96
3.4Walks drawn / game3.3
58−54Season record59−53
8−2Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SD chance · ARI chance
Our model fair48.8%51.2%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SDSan Diego Padres+10549%−10751.8%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−10551%−11252.7%———
Spreadabout even
SDSan Diego PadresPKour margin————
ARIArizona DiamondbacksPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
San Diego Padres by 13 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 12 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 11 runs: <1%San Diego Padres by 10 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 9 runs: 1%San Diego Padres by 8 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 7 runs: 2%San Diego Padres by 6 runs: 3%San Diego Padres by 5 runs: 4%San Diego Padres by 4 runs: 6%San Diego Padres by 3 runs: 7%San Diego Padres by 2 runs: 10%San Diego Padres by 1 run: 12%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 15%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%
← SD wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more36%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more26%
San Diego Padres wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SDMichael King SP · last 3 starts: 17.0 IP, 3.18 ERA, 17 Kstarted
ARIBrandon Pfaadt SP · last 3 starts: 18.1 IP, 1.96 ERA, 8 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SD·ARI
Aug 2 vs SF
last game
Aug 2 at CLE
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 112+ games
SD·ARI
+0.06
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
4.2
runs / game
4.5
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.5
58−54
season record
59−53
32−25
home record
31−22
26−29
away record
28−31
W3
streak
L1
8−2
last 10
6−4
7.7
hits / game
8.1
1.08
home runs / game
0.96
3.4
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
8.2
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.8
0.40
errors / game
0.38

Rating Trend

SD · ARI · 128 days
San Diego PadresArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 3−7
Jul 9at SDARI 3 − 1
Jul 8at SDSD 10 − 4
Jul 7at SDSD 4 − 1
Jul 6at SDARI 8 − 0
Apr 26at ARIARI 12 − 7
Apr 25at ARISD 6 − 4
Sep 28, 2025at SDSD 12 − 4
Sep 27, 2025at SDSD 5 − 1
Sep 26, 2025at SDSD 7 − 4
Aug 6, 2025at ARISD 3 − 2

SD · Last 10

8−2 · streak W3
Aug 2vs SF5 − 4W
Aug 1vs SF6 − 5W
Jul 31vs SF7 − 0W
Jul 30vs SF1 − 4L
Jul 29vs COL3 − 1W
Jul 28vs COL8 − 7W
Jul 26at MIA5 − 3W
Jul 25at MIA7 − 2W
Jul 24at MIA4 − 2W
Jul 23at ATL5 − 6L

ARI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Aug 2at CLE0 − 5L
Aug 1at CLE12 − 8W
Jul 31at CLE4 − 1W
Jul 29at PIT3 − 0W
Jul 28at PIT8 − 7W
Jul 27at PIT2 − 3L
Jul 26at WSH7 − 10L
Jul 25at WSH3 − 5L
Jul 24at WSH3 − 2W
Jul 23at STL10 − 6W