bayesRatings

Dodgers at Diamondbacks

MLB · Sunday, Aug 9 · 3:10 PM CT · Chase Field · Final LAD 2 – ARI 4
← MLB / Aug 9

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD001001000261
ARI22000000460
Team box
LAD·ARI
6
hits
6
0
home runs
1
2
walks
3
11
strikeouts
7
130
pitches thrown
137
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ketel MarteARI1-4112
Andy PagesLAD2-4001
Gabriel MorenoARI1-4101
Kyle TuckerLAD1-4001
Ildemaro VargasARI1-4000
Geraldo PerdomoARI1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Justin Wrobleski (L)LAD3.16333
Eduardo Rodriguez (W)ARI7.05229
Kevin Ginkel (S)ARI1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +4
LAD +4
123456789
largest lead: ARI 4 · LAD 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 54%, ARI 46% · Updated Aug 9

Expected margin
LAD by 0.9
Expected score
LAD 5.1 – 4.2 ARI
Expected total
9.3
DodgersThe matchupDiamondbacks
−118Our fair odds+118
5.1Expected runs4.2
+0.27Power rating+0.04
5.0Runs / game4.5
3.8Allowed / game4.5
8.8Hits / game8.1
1.29Home runs / game0.96
3.8Walks drawn / game3.3
70−47Season record62−56
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · ARI chance
Our model fair54.1%45.9%
Kalshi58.7%45.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−11854%−14258.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+11846%+11945.7%———
SpreadLAD by 0.9
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.9our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.3
Over9.3our total————
Under9.3our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 0.9 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 11%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 16%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 15 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byARI wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more44%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more34%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.3 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.560%
Total over 9.542%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADJustin Wrobleski SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 7.02 ERA, 18 Kstarted
ARIEduardo Rodriguez SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 3.20 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·ARI
Aug 8 at ARI
last game
Aug 8 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 117+ games
LAD·ARI
+0.27
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
5.0
runs / game
4.5
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.5
70−47
season record
62−56
33−23
home record
34−25
37−24
away record
28−31
W1
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
6−4
8.8
hits / game
8.1
1.29
home runs / game
0.96
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.3
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.8
0.38
errors / game
0.37

Rating Trend

LAD · ARI · 134 days
Los Angeles DodgersArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 6−4
Aug 8at ARILAD 2 − 1
Aug 7at ARIARI 4 − 3
Jul 12at LADARI 5 − 3
Jul 11at LADARI 9 − 2
Jul 10at LADARI 9 − 3
Jun 4at ARIARI 3 − 2
Jun 3at ARILAD 7 − 0
Jun 2at ARILAD 6 − 5
Jun 1at ARIARI 4 − 1
Mar 28at LADLAD 3 − 2

LAD · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Aug 8at ARI2 − 1W
Aug 7at ARI3 − 4L
Aug 5at CHC6 − 7L
Aug 4at CHC1 − 5L
Aug 3at CHC5 − 10L
Aug 2vs BOS4 − 8L
Aug 1vs BOS2 − 3L
Jul 31vs BOS4 − 9L
Jul 30vs SEA6 − 2W
Jul 29vs SEA4 − 2W

ARI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Aug 8vs LAD1 − 2L
Aug 7vs LAD4 − 3W
Aug 6vs SD1 − 5L
Aug 5vs SD10 − 4W
Aug 4vs SD4 − 9L
Aug 3vs SD5 − 1W
Aug 2at CLE0 − 5L
Aug 1at CLE12 − 8W
Jul 31at CLE4 − 1W
Jul 29at PIT3 − 0W