bayesRatings

Red Sox at Dodgers

MLB · Saturday, Aug 1 · 8:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final BOS 3 – LAD 2
← MLB / Aug 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS101000010340
LAD0200000002100
Team box
BOS·LAD
4
hits
10
2
home runs
1
1
walks
2
4
strikeouts
9
118
pitches thrown
106
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS2-4222
Teoscar HernandezLAD3-4112
Freddie FreemanLAD3-4100
Andruw MonasterioBOS1-3100
Jarren DuranBOS1-3000
Miguel RojasLAD1-3000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Payton TolleBOS6.09227
Justin Slaten (W)BOS1.00001
Aroldis Chapman (S)BOS1.00001
Yoshinobu Yamamoto (L)LAD8.04313

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +3
BOS +3
123456789
largest lead: LAD 1 · BOS 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 44%, LAD 56% · Updated Aug 1

Expected margin
LAD by 0.5
Expected score
LAD 4.5 – 4.0 BOS
Expected total
8.5
Red SoxThe matchupDodgers
+129Our fair odds−129
4.0Expected runs4.5
+0.14Power rating+0.33
4.2Runs / game5.1
3.7Allowed / game3.7
8.2Hits / game8.8
0.96Home runs / game1.29
3.0Walks drawn / game3.9
58−51Season record69−41
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · LAD chance
Our model fair43.7%56.3%
Kalshi39.6%65.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox+12944%+15239.6%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−12956%−19165.6%———
SpreadLAD by 0.5
BOSBoston Red Sox+0.5our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 0.5 expected
Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 9%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 12%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 17%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more39%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more29%
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSPayton Tolle SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 4.30 ERA, 23 Kstarted
LADYoshinobu Yamamoto SP · last 3 starts: 21.0 IP, 3.86 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·LAD
Jul 31 at LAD
last game
Jul 31 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 109+ games
BOS·LAD
+0.14
rating (0 = average)
+0.33
4.2
runs / game
5.1
3.7
runs allowed / game
3.7
58−51
season record
69−41
25−29
home record
33−21
33−22
away record
36−20
W3
streak
L1
7−3
last 10
6−4
8.2
hits / game
8.8
0.96
home runs / game
1.29
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.3
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.48
errors / game
0.37

Rating Trend

BOS · LAD · 126 days
Boston Red SoxLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 6−4
Jul 31at LADBOS 9 − 4
Jul 27, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 3
Jul 26, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 2
Jul 25, 2025at BOSLAD 5 − 2
Jul 21, 2024at LADLAD 9 − 6
Jul 20, 2024at LADLAD 7 − 6
Jul 19, 2024at LADLAD 4 − 1
Aug 27, 2023at BOSLAD 7 − 4
Aug 26, 2023at BOSBOS 8 − 5
Aug 25, 2023at BOSLAD 7 − 4

BOS · Last 10

7−3 · streak W3
Jul 31at LAD9 − 4W
Jul 30at ATH5 − 4W
Jul 29at ATH4 − 2W
Jul 28at ATH3 − 4L
Jul 27at ATH4 − 2W
Jul 26vs TOR6 − 1W
Jul 25vs TOR0 − 6L
Jul 24vs TOR6 − 4W
Jul 22vs BAL1 − 5L
Jul 22vs BAL6 − 3W

LAD · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jul 31vs BOS4 − 9L
Jul 30vs SEA6 − 2W
Jul 29vs SEA4 − 2W
Jul 28vs SEA6 − 7L
Jul 26at NYM3 − 8L
Jul 25at NYM4 − 3W
Jul 24at NYM4 − 2W
Jul 22at PHI9 − 5W
Jul 21at PHI2 − 1W
Jul 20at PHI7 − 10L