bayesRatings

Mariners at Dodgers

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 29 · 9:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final SEA 2 – LAD 4
← MLB / Jul 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA000000011250
LAD101101004111
Team box
SEA·LAD
5
hits
11
0
home runs
1
2
walks
1
5
strikeouts
7
140
pitches thrown
130
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Andy PagesLAD3-4112
Freddie FreemanLAD2-4001
Shohei OhtaniLAD2-3101
Cole YoungSEA2-3001
Josh NaylorSEA1-4001
Mookie BettsLAD1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Emerson Hancock (L)SEA5.08315
Eric Lauer (W)LAD6.01014
Edwin Diaz (S)LAD1.02100

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +4
SEA +4
123456789
largest lead: LAD 4 · SEA 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 41%, LAD 59% · Updated Jul 29

Expected margin
LAD by 1.0
Expected score
LAD 4.8 – 3.8 SEA
Expected total
8.6
MarinersThe matchupDodgers
+144Our fair odds−144
3.8Expected runs4.8
+0.02Power rating+0.33
4.0Runs / game5.2
4.0Allowed / game3.7
7.6Hits / game8.8
1.19Home runs / game1.29
3.2Walks drawn / game3.9
53−55Season record67−40
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · LAD chance
Our model fair40.9%59.1%
Kalshi39.6%64.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners+14441%+15239.6%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−14459%−18364.6%———
SpreadLAD by 1.0
SEASeattle Mariners+1our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.6
Over8.6our total————
Under8.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.0 expected
Seattle Mariners by 14 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 9%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 15%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more44%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more33%
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.6 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.566%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEAEmerson Hancock SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 1.23 ERA, 10 Kstarted
LADEric Lauer SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 4.67 ERA, 10 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·LAD
Jul 28 at LAD
last game
Jul 28 vs SEA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
5
6th straight road game
home / road
2nd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 107+ games
SEA·LAD
+0.02
rating (0 = average)
+0.33
4.0
runs / game
5.2
4.0
runs allowed / game
3.7
53−55
season record
67−40
30−23
home record
31−20
23−32
away record
36−20
W1
streak
L2
5−5
last 10
6−4
7.6
hits / game
8.8
1.19
home runs / game
1.29
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.51
errors / game
0.35

Rating Trend

SEA · LAD · 123 days
Seattle MarinersLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 9−1
Jul 28at LADSEA 7 − 6
Sep 28, 2025at SEALAD 6 − 1
Sep 27, 2025at SEALAD 5 − 3
Sep 26, 2025at SEALAD 3 − 2
Aug 21, 2024at LADLAD 8 − 4
Aug 20, 2024at LADLAD 6 − 3
Aug 19, 2024at LADLAD 3 − 0
Sep 17, 2023at SEALAD 6 − 1
Sep 16, 2023at SEALAD 6 − 2
Sep 15, 2023at SEALAD 6 − 3

SEA · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Jul 28at LAD7 − 6W
Jul 27at TEX3 − 7L
Jul 26at TEX6 − 4W
Jul 25at TEX1 − 7L
Jul 24at TEX4 − 5L
Jul 22vs CIN3 − 5L
Jul 21vs CIN2 − 4L
Jul 20vs CIN8 − 0W
Jul 19vs SF6 − 3W
Jul 18vs SF4 − 3W

LAD · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Jul 28vs SEA6 − 7L
Jul 26at NYM3 − 8L
Jul 25at NYM4 − 3W
Jul 24at NYM4 − 2W
Jul 22at PHI9 − 5W
Jul 21at PHI2 − 1W
Jul 20at PHI7 − 10L
Jul 19at NYY1 − 2L
Jul 19at NYY8 − 2W
Jul 17at NYY2 − 1W