bayesRatings

Dodgers at Mets

MLB · Friday, Jul 24 · 6:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final LAD 4 – NYM 2
← MLB / Jul 24

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD0001001204110
NYM010000010240
Team box
LAD·NYM
11
hits
4
1
home runs
2
3
walks
2
5
strikeouts
11
132
pitches thrown
132
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kyle TuckerLAD2-3112
Luis Robert Jr.NYM1-3111
Francisco AlvarezNYM1-3111
Freddie FreemanLAD3-4200
Shohei OhtaniLAD2-4001
Teoscar HernandezLAD2-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Roki Sasaki (W)LAD7.03129
Tanner Scott (S)LAD1.00001
Sean ManaeaNYM6.06123
Brooks Raley (L)NYM1.02110

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +3
LAD +3
123456789
largest lead: NYM 1 · LAD 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 59%, NYM 41% · Updated Jul 24

Expected margin
LAD by 1.6
Expected score
LAD 5.3 – 3.8 NYM
Expected total
9.1
DodgersThe matchupMets
−144Our fair odds+144
5.3Expected runs3.8
+0.35Power rating−0.08
5.2Runs / game4.1
3.7Allowed / game4.7
8.7Hits / game7.9
1.30Home runs / game1.17
4.0Walks drawn / game3.1
65−38Season record43−60
5−5Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · NYM chance
Our model fair59.1%40.9%
Kalshi56.7%47.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−14459%−13156.7%———
NYMNew York Mets+14441%+10947.7%———
SpreadLAD by 1.6
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.6our margin————
NYMNew York Mets+1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.6 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 16 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 9%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 11%New York Mets by 1 run: 16%New York Mets by 2 runs: 8%New York Mets by 3 runs: 5%New York Mets by 4 runs: 4%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 15 runs: <1%New York Mets by 16 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byNYM wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more50%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more39%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more24%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADRoki Sasaki SP · last 3 starts: 14.2 IP, 5.52 ERA, 13 Kstarted
NYMSean Manaea SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 4.86 ERA, 17 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·NYM
Jul 22 at PHI
last game
Jul 22 at MIL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
5
7th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 103+ games
LAD·NYM
+0.35
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
5.2
runs / game
4.1
3.7
runs allowed / game
4.7
65−38
season record
43−60
31−19
home record
21−28
34−19
away record
22−32
W2
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
4−6
8.7
hits / game
7.9
1.30
home runs / game
1.17
4.0
walks drawn / game
3.1
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.36
errors / game
0.67

Rating Trend

LAD · NYM · 118 days
Los Angeles DodgersNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 4−6
Apr 15at LADLAD 8 − 2
Apr 14at LADLAD 2 − 1
Apr 13at LADLAD 4 − 0
Jun 5, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 5
Jun 4, 2025at LADNYM 6 − 1
Jun 3, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 5
Jun 2, 2025at LADNYM 4 − 3
May 25, 2025at NYMNYM 3 − 1
May 24, 2025at NYMNYM 5 − 2
May 23, 2025at NYMLAD 7 − 5

LAD · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jul 22at PHI9 − 5W
Jul 21at PHI2 − 1W
Jul 20at PHI7 − 10L
Jul 19at NYY1 − 2L
Jul 19at NYY8 − 2W
Jul 17at NYY2 − 1W
Jul 12vs ARI3 − 5L
Jul 11vs ARI2 − 9L
Jul 10vs ARI3 − 9L
Jul 8vs COL4 − 3W

NYM · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jul 22at MIL3 − 4L
Jul 21at MIL4 − 0W
Jul 20at MIL3 − 8L
Jul 19at PHI6 − 1W
Jul 18at PHI1 − 6L
Jul 16at PHI4 − 1W
Jul 12vs BOS2 − 3L
Jul 11vs BOS0 − 4L
Jul 10vs BOS2 − 6L
Jul 9vs KC7 − 3W