bayesRatings

Mariners at Dodgers

MLB · Tuesday, Jul 28 · 9:10 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final SEA 7 – LAD 6
← MLB / Jul 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
SEA0103010207102
LAD1012100016130
Team box
SEA·LAD
10
hits
13
5
home runs
2
0
walks
3
11
strikeouts
4
148
pitches thrown
152
2
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dominic CanzoneSEA2-4223
Shohei OhtaniLAD3-4113
Rob RefsnyderSEA2-4112
Julio RodriguezSEA2-4211
Max MuncyLAD1-4111
Cal RaleighSEA1-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Luis CastilloSEA5.011522
Jose Ferrer (W)SEA1.00000
Andres Munoz (S)SEA1.02111
Justin WrobleskiLAD6.07507
Brock Stewart (L)LAD1.11100

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +3
SEA +3
123456789
largest lead: LAD 1 · SEA 2lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was SEA 40%, LAD 60% · Updated Jul 28

Expected margin
LAD by 1.1
Expected score
LAD 4.8 – 3.7 SEA
Expected total
8.5
MarinersThe matchupDodgers
+147Our fair odds−147
3.7Expected runs4.8
+0.01Power rating+0.34
4.0Runs / game5.2
3.9Allowed / game3.7
7.6Hits / game8.8
1.16Home runs / game1.28
3.3Walks drawn / game3.9
52−55Season record67−39
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
SEA chance · LAD chance
Our model fair40.4%59.6%
Kalshi33.5%70.5%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 9:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
SEASeattle Mariners+14740%+19833.5%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−14760%−23970.5%———
SpreadLAD by 1.1
SEASeattle Mariners+1.1our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.1our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.1 expected
Seattle Mariners by 14 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 13 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 12 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 11 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 10 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 9 runs: <1%Seattle Mariners by 8 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 7 runs: 1%Seattle Mariners by 6 runs: 2%Seattle Mariners by 5 runs: 3%Seattle Mariners by 4 runs: 4%Seattle Mariners by 3 runs: 6%Seattle Mariners by 2 runs: 9%Seattle Mariners by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 14%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%
← SEA wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more45%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more34%
Seattle Mariners wins by 2 or more26%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 7%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.545%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
SEALuis Castillo SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 4.50 ERA, 11 Kstarted
LADJustin Wrobleski SP · last 3 starts: 20.1 IP, 2.21 ERA, 27 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
SEA·LAD
Jul 27 at TEX
last game
Jul 26 at NYM
0 days
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
5
5th straight road game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 106+ games
SEA·LAD
+0.01
rating (0 = average)
+0.34
4.0
runs / game
5.2
3.9
runs allowed / game
3.7
52−55
season record
67−39
30−23
home record
31−19
22−32
away record
36−20
L1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
6−4
7.6
hits / game
8.8
1.16
home runs / game
1.28
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.9
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.50
errors / game
0.35

Rating Trend

SEA · LAD · 122 days
Seattle MarinersLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 10−0
Sep 28, 2025at SEALAD 6 − 1
Sep 27, 2025at SEALAD 5 − 3
Sep 26, 2025at SEALAD 3 − 2
Aug 21, 2024at LADLAD 8 − 4
Aug 20, 2024at LADLAD 6 − 3
Aug 19, 2024at LADLAD 3 − 0
Sep 17, 2023at SEALAD 6 − 1
Sep 16, 2023at SEALAD 6 − 2
Sep 15, 2023at SEALAD 6 − 3
May 12, 2021at LADLAD 7 − 1

SEA · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Jul 27at TEX3 − 7L
Jul 26at TEX6 − 4W
Jul 25at TEX1 − 7L
Jul 24at TEX4 − 5L
Jul 22vs CIN3 − 5L
Jul 21vs CIN2 − 4L
Jul 20vs CIN8 − 0W
Jul 19vs SF6 − 3W
Jul 18vs SF4 − 3W
Jul 17vs SF0 − 7L

LAD · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jul 26at NYM3 − 8L
Jul 25at NYM4 − 3W
Jul 24at NYM4 − 2W
Jul 22at PHI9 − 5W
Jul 21at PHI2 − 1W
Jul 20at PHI7 − 10L
Jul 19at NYY1 − 2L
Jul 19at NYY8 − 2W
Jul 17at NYY2 − 1W
Jul 12vs ARI3 − 5L