bayesRatings

Dodgers at Mets

MLB · Sunday, Jul 26 · 12:40 PM CT · Citi Field · Final LAD 3 – NYM 8
← MLB / Jul 26

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD002100000390
NYM10000340861
Team box
LAD·NYM
9
hits
6
0
home runs
2
2
walks
7
10
strikeouts
9
167
pitches thrown
168
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Marcus SemienNYM1-1113
Tyrone TaylorNYM1-3113
Freddie FreemanLAD2-4001
Teoscar HernandezLAD2-4000
Tommy EdmanLAD2-4100
Eliezer AlfonzoLAD1-2101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Emmet SheehanLAD5.03125
Evan Phillips (L)LAD0.21101
Freddy PeraltaNYM4.06223
Cionel Perez (W)NYM2.00003

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +5
LAD +5
123456789
largest lead: NYM 5 · LAD 2lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 60%, NYM 40% · Updated Jul 26

Expected margin
LAD by 1.6
Expected score
LAD 5.3 – 3.7 NYM
Expected total
9.0
DodgersThe matchupMets
−150Our fair odds+150
5.3Expected runs3.7
+0.37Power rating−0.09
5.2Runs / game4.0
3.6Allowed / game4.7
8.8Hits / game7.8
1.30Home runs / game1.17
3.9Walks drawn / game3.2
67−38Season record43−62
6−4Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · NYM chance
Our model fair59.9%40.1%
Kalshi60.7%43.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−15060%−15460.7%———
NYMNew York Mets+15040%+12943.7%———
SpreadLAD by 1.6
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1.6our margin————
NYMNew York Mets+1.6our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.6 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 9%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 11%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 11%New York Mets by 1 run: 16%New York Mets by 2 runs: 8%New York Mets by 3 runs: 5%New York Mets by 4 runs: 4%New York Mets by 5 runs: 2%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%New York Mets by 15 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byNYM wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more50%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more39%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more23%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1132%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADEmmet Sheehan SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 5.40 ERA, 18 Kstarted
NYMFreddy Peralta SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 6.28 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·NYM
Jul 25 at NYM
last game
Jul 25 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
9th straight road game
home / road
3rd straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 105+ games
LAD·NYM
+0.37
rating (0 = average)
−0.09
5.2
runs / game
4.0
3.6
runs allowed / game
4.7
67−38
season record
43−62
31−19
home record
21−30
36−19
away record
22−32
W4
streak
L3
6−4
last 10
3−7
8.8
hits / game
7.8
1.30
home runs / game
1.17
3.9
walks drawn / game
3.2
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.35
errors / game
0.67

Rating Trend

LAD · NYM · 120 days
Los Angeles DodgersNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 3−7
Jul 25at NYMLAD 4 − 3
Jul 24at NYMLAD 4 − 2
Apr 15at LADLAD 8 − 2
Apr 14at LADLAD 2 − 1
Apr 13at LADLAD 4 − 0
Jun 5, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 5
Jun 4, 2025at LADNYM 6 − 1
Jun 3, 2025at LADLAD 6 − 5
Jun 2, 2025at LADNYM 4 − 3
May 25, 2025at NYMNYM 3 − 1

LAD · Last 10

6−4 · streak W4
Jul 25at NYM4 − 3W
Jul 24at NYM4 − 2W
Jul 22at PHI9 − 5W
Jul 21at PHI2 − 1W
Jul 20at PHI7 − 10L
Jul 19at NYY1 − 2L
Jul 19at NYY8 − 2W
Jul 17at NYY2 − 1W
Jul 12vs ARI3 − 5L
Jul 11vs ARI2 − 9L

NYM · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Jul 25vs LAD3 − 4L
Jul 24vs LAD2 − 4L
Jul 22at MIL3 − 4L
Jul 21at MIL4 − 0W
Jul 20at MIL3 − 8L
Jul 19at PHI6 − 1W
Jul 18at PHI1 − 6L
Jul 16at PHI4 − 1W
Jul 12vs BOS2 − 3L
Jul 11vs BOS0 − 4L