bayesRatings

Dodgers at Cubs

MLB · Wednesday, Aug 5 · 1:20 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final LAD 6 – CHC 7
← MLB / Aug 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD1000000506141
CHC120300107150
Team box
LAD·CHC
14
hits
15
3
home runs
2
0
walks
0
11
strikeouts
6
153
pitches thrown
162
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC3-5224
Shohei OhtaniLAD3-5223
Max MuncyLAD1-4113
Nico HoernerCHC3-4101
Mookie BettsLAD4-5100
Carson KellyCHC3-5000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Eric Lauer (L)LAD4.011601
Shota Imanaga (W)CHC5.08106
Jacob Webb (S)CHC1.00000

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +6
LAD +6
123456789
largest lead: CHC 6 · LAD 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 50%, CHC 50% · Updated Aug 5

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
LAD 4.7 – 4.4 CHC
Expected total
9.1
DodgersThe matchupCubs
+100Our fair odds−100
4.7Expected runs4.4
+0.29Power rating+0.22
5.1Runs / game5.1
3.8Allowed / game4.3
8.8Hits / game8.5
1.28Home runs / game1.24
3.8Walks drawn / game4.3
69−45Season record65−49
3−7Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · CHC chance
Our model fair50.0%50.0%
Kalshi50.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 1:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers+10050%−10350.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs−10050%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.3our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 11%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 17%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 9%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byCHC wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more39%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more29%
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADEric Lauer SP · last 3 starts: 17.1 IP, 3.12 ERA, 12 Kstarted
CHCShota Imanaga SP · last 3 starts: 19.2 IP, 0.92 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·CHC
Aug 4 at CHC
last game
Aug 4 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 114+ games
LAD·CHC
+0.29
rating (0 = average)
+0.22
5.1
runs / game
5.1
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.3
69−45
season record
65−49
33−23
home record
33−24
36−22
away record
32−25
L5
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
6−4
8.8
hits / game
8.5
1.28
home runs / game
1.24
3.8
walks drawn / game
4.3
7.8
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.7
0.38
errors / game
0.39

Rating Trend

LAD · CHC · 130 days
Los Angeles DodgersChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 7−3
Aug 4at CHCCHC 5 − 1
Aug 3at CHCCHC 10 − 5
Apr 26at LADLAD 6 − 0
Apr 25at LADLAD 12 − 4
Apr 24at LADCHC 6 − 4
Apr 23, 2025at CHCCHC 7 − 6
Apr 22, 2025at CHCCHC 11 − 10
Apr 13, 2025at LADCHC 4 − 2
Apr 12, 2025at LADCHC 16 − 0
Apr 11, 2025at LADLAD 3 − 0

LAD · Last 10

3−7 · streak L5
Aug 4at CHC1 − 5L
Aug 3at CHC5 − 10L
Aug 2vs BOS4 − 8L
Aug 1vs BOS2 − 3L
Jul 31vs BOS4 − 9L
Jul 30vs SEA6 − 2W
Jul 29vs SEA4 − 2W
Jul 28vs SEA6 − 7L
Jul 26at NYM3 − 8L
Jul 25at NYM4 − 3W

CHC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W2
Aug 4vs LAD5 − 1W
Aug 3vs LAD10 − 5W
Aug 2vs NYY1 − 2L
Aug 1vs NYY5 − 2W
Jul 31vs NYY0 − 2L
Jul 30at STL4 − 2W
Jul 29at STL2 − 3L
Jul 28at STL10 − 2W
Jul 27at STL7 − 3W
Jul 26at PIT7 − 8L