bayesRatings

Dodgers at Cubs

MLB · Tuesday, Aug 4 · 7:05 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final LAD 1 – CHC 5
← MLB / Aug 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD010000000140
CHC00100121590
Team box
LAD·CHC
4
hits
9
1
home runs
2
2
walks
3
4
strikeouts
8
131
pitches thrown
125
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Dansby SwansonCHC3-4211
Nico HoernerCHC2-4112
Kyle TuckerLAD2-3111
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCHC2-4101
Seiya SuzukiCHC1-2001
Alex BregmanCHC1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tarik Skubal (L)LAD6.04226
Javier AssadCHC5.24123
Ryan Rolison (W)CHC1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +4
LAD +4
123456789
largest lead: CHC 4 · LAD 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 51%, CHC 49% · Updated Aug 4

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
LAD 4.8 – 4.4 CHC
Expected total
9.2
DodgersThe matchupCubs
−103Our fair odds+103
4.8Expected runs4.4
+0.30Power rating+0.21
5.1Runs / game5.1
3.8Allowed / game4.3
8.8Hits / game8.5
1.28Home runs / game1.23
3.8Walks drawn / game4.3
69−44Season record64−49
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · CHC chance
Our model fair50.7%49.3%
Kalshi66.6%38.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−10351%−19966.6%———
CHCChicago Cubs+10349%+15938.6%———
Spreadabout even
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.4our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs+0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 11%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 16%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 9%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 7%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byCHC wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more40%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more30%
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADTarik Skubal SP · last 3 starts: 21.0 IP, 1.71 ERA, 27 Kstarted
CHCJavier Assad RP · last 3 starts: 14.0 IP, 1.93 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·CHC
Aug 3 at CHC
last game
Aug 3 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 113+ games
LAD·CHC
+0.30
rating (0 = average)
+0.21
5.1
runs / game
5.1
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.3
69−44
season record
64−49
33−23
home record
32−24
36−21
away record
32−25
L4
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.8
hits / game
8.5
1.28
home runs / game
1.23
3.8
walks drawn / game
4.3
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.38
errors / game
0.39

Rating Trend

LAD · CHC · 129 days
Los Angeles DodgersChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 6−4
Aug 3at CHCCHC 10 − 5
Apr 26at LADLAD 6 − 0
Apr 25at LADLAD 12 − 4
Apr 24at LADCHC 6 − 4
Apr 23, 2025at CHCCHC 7 − 6
Apr 22, 2025at CHCCHC 11 − 10
Apr 13, 2025at LADCHC 4 − 2
Apr 12, 2025at LADCHC 16 − 0
Apr 11, 2025at LADLAD 3 − 0
Mar 19, 2025at CHCLAD 6 − 3

LAD · Last 10

4−6 · streak L4
Aug 3at CHC5 − 10L
Aug 2vs BOS4 − 8L
Aug 1vs BOS2 − 3L
Jul 31vs BOS4 − 9L
Jul 30vs SEA6 − 2W
Jul 29vs SEA4 − 2W
Jul 28vs SEA6 − 7L
Jul 26at NYM3 − 8L
Jul 25at NYM4 − 3W
Jul 24at NYM4 − 2W

CHC · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Aug 3vs LAD10 − 5W
Aug 2vs NYY1 − 2L
Aug 1vs NYY5 − 2W
Jul 31vs NYY0 − 2L
Jul 30at STL4 − 2W
Jul 29at STL2 − 3L
Jul 28at STL10 − 2W
Jul 27at STL7 − 3W
Jul 26at PIT7 − 8L
Jul 25at PIT11 − 0W