bayesRatings

Dodgers at Cubs

MLB · Monday, Aug 3 · 7:05 PM CT · Wrigley Field · Final LAD 5 – CHC 10
← MLB / Aug 3

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD3001010005101
CHC2220130010101
Team box
LAD·CHC
10
hits
10
2
home runs
4
1
walks
7
4
strikeouts
10
163
pitches thrown
128
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Michael BuschCHC2-4113
Carson KellyCHC1-4113
Tommy EdmanLAD1-4113
Kevin AlcantaraCHC1-1112
Seiya SuzukiCHC1-4212
Teoscar HernandezLAD2-4111
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Justin Wrobleski (L)LAD4.17734
Matthew Boyd (W)CHC6.29413

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHC +5
LAD +5
123456789
largest lead: CHC 5 · LAD 3lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 51%, CHC 49% · Updated Aug 3

Expected margin
LAD by 0.5
Expected score
LAD 4.8 – 4.3 CHC
Expected total
9.1
DodgersThe matchupCubs
−106Our fair odds+106
4.8Expected runs4.3
+0.32Power rating+0.20
5.1Runs / game5.1
3.8Allowed / game4.3
8.8Hits / game8.5
1.28Home runs / game1.21
3.8Walks drawn / game4.3
69−43Season record63−49
5−5Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · CHC chance
Our model fair51.4%48.6%
Kalshi55.7%48.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 7:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−10651%−12655.7%———
CHCChicago Cubs+10649%+10548.7%———
SpreadLAD by 0.5
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.5our margin————
CHCChicago Cubs+0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.1
Over9.1our total————
Under9.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 0.5 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 11%Chicago Cubs by 1 run: 17%Chicago Cubs by 2 runs: 9%Chicago Cubs by 3 runs: 6%Chicago Cubs by 4 runs: 5%Chicago Cubs by 5 runs: 4%Chicago Cubs by 6 runs: 3%Chicago Cubs by 7 runs: 2%Chicago Cubs by 8 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 9 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 10 runs: 1%Chicago Cubs by 11 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 12 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 13 runs: <1%Chicago Cubs by 14 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byCHC wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more41%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more31%
Chicago Cubs wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.526%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADJustin Wrobleski SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 3.26 ERA, 23 Kstarted
CHCMatthew Boyd SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 0.90 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·CHC
Aug 2 vs BOS
last game
Aug 2 vs NYY
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 112+ games
LAD·CHC
+0.32
rating (0 = average)
+0.20
5.1
runs / game
5.1
3.8
runs allowed / game
4.3
69−43
season record
63−49
33−23
home record
31−24
36−20
away record
32−25
L3
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
6−4
8.8
hits / game
8.5
1.28
home runs / game
1.21
3.8
walks drawn / game
4.3
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.6
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.8
0.38
errors / game
0.38

Rating Trend

LAD · CHC · 128 days
Los Angeles DodgersChicago Cubs
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHC 5−5
Apr 26at LADLAD 6 − 0
Apr 25at LADLAD 12 − 4
Apr 24at LADCHC 6 − 4
Apr 23, 2025at CHCCHC 7 − 6
Apr 22, 2025at CHCCHC 11 − 10
Apr 13, 2025at LADCHC 4 − 2
Apr 12, 2025at LADCHC 16 − 0
Apr 11, 2025at LADLAD 3 − 0
Mar 19, 2025at CHCLAD 6 − 3
Mar 18, 2025at CHCLAD 4 − 1

LAD · Last 10

5−5 · streak L3
Aug 2vs BOS4 − 8L
Aug 1vs BOS2 − 3L
Jul 31vs BOS4 − 9L
Jul 30vs SEA6 − 2W
Jul 29vs SEA4 − 2W
Jul 28vs SEA6 − 7L
Jul 26at NYM3 − 8L
Jul 25at NYM4 − 3W
Jul 24at NYM4 − 2W
Jul 22at PHI9 − 5W

CHC · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Aug 2vs NYY1 − 2L
Aug 1vs NYY5 − 2W
Jul 31vs NYY0 − 2L
Jul 30at STL4 − 2W
Jul 29at STL2 − 3L
Jul 28at STL10 − 2W
Jul 27at STL7 − 3W
Jul 26at PIT7 − 8L
Jul 25at PIT11 − 0W
Jul 24at PIT3 − 2W