bayesRatings

Red Sox at Dodgers

MLB · Sunday, Aug 2 · 6:20 PM CT · Dodger Stadium · Final BOS 8 – LAD 4
← MLB / Aug 2

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
BOS203001020890
LAD030000100491
Team box
BOS·LAD
9
hits
9
4
home runs
0
5
walks
3
11
strikeouts
6
148
pitches thrown
186
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Masataka YoshidaBOS2-4112
Andy PagesLAD2-5003
Ceddanne RafaelaBOS2-5211
Wilyer AbreuBOS2-4211
Jarren DuranBOS1-4111
Caleb DurbinBOS1-3101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jake Bennett (W)BOS5.26324
Emmet Sheehan (L)LAD2.26514

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
LAD +4
BOS +4
123456789
largest lead: LAD 1 · BOS 4lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was BOS 44%, LAD 56% · Updated Aug 2

Expected margin
LAD by 0.5
Expected score
LAD 4.5 – 4.0 BOS
Expected total
8.5
Red SoxThe matchupDodgers
+126Our fair odds−126
4.0Expected runs4.5
+0.15Power rating+0.32
4.2Runs / game5.1
3.7Allowed / game3.7
8.1Hits / game8.8
0.97Home runs / game1.29
3.0Walks drawn / game3.8
59−51Season record69−42
7−3Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
BOS chance · LAD chance
Our model fair44.2%55.8%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:20 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
BOSBoston Red Sox+12644%+14640.7%———
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−12656%−17563.6%———
SpreadLAD by 0.5
BOSBoston Red Sox+0.5our margin————
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.5
Over8.5our total————
Under8.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 0.5 expected
Boston Red Sox by 13 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 12 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 11 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 10 runs: <1%Boston Red Sox by 9 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 8 runs: 1%Boston Red Sox by 7 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 6 runs: 2%Boston Red Sox by 5 runs: 4%Boston Red Sox by 4 runs: 5%Boston Red Sox by 3 runs: 7%Boston Red Sox by 2 runs: 9%Boston Red Sox by 1 run: 13%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 16%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 6%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%
← BOS wins byLAD wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more40%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more29%
Boston Red Sox wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run29%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.5 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 7%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: <1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.565%
Total over 8.546%
Total over 10.529%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
BOSJake Bennett SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, 11 Kstarted
LADEmmet Sheehan SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 5.17 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
BOS·LAD
Aug 1 at LAD
last game
Aug 1 vs BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
7th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 110+ games
BOS·LAD
+0.15
rating (0 = average)
+0.32
4.2
runs / game
5.1
3.7
runs allowed / game
3.7
59−51
season record
69−42
25−29
home record
33−22
34−22
away record
36−20
W4
streak
L2
7−3
last 10
6−4
8.1
hits / game
8.8
0.97
home runs / game
1.29
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.8
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
7.9
8.5
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.9
0.47
errors / game
0.37

Rating Trend

BOS · LAD · 127 days
Boston Red SoxLos Angeles Dodgers
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · LAD 5−5
Aug 1at LADBOS 3 − 2
Jul 31at LADBOS 9 − 4
Jul 27, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 3
Jul 26, 2025at BOSBOS 4 − 2
Jul 25, 2025at BOSLAD 5 − 2
Jul 21, 2024at LADLAD 9 − 6
Jul 20, 2024at LADLAD 7 − 6
Jul 19, 2024at LADLAD 4 − 1
Aug 27, 2023at BOSLAD 7 − 4
Aug 26, 2023at BOSBOS 8 − 5

BOS · Last 10

7−3 · streak W4
Aug 1at LAD3 − 2W
Jul 31at LAD9 − 4W
Jul 30at ATH5 − 4W
Jul 29at ATH4 − 2W
Jul 28at ATH3 − 4L
Jul 27at ATH4 − 2W
Jul 26vs TOR6 − 1W
Jul 25vs TOR0 − 6L
Jul 24vs TOR6 − 4W
Jul 22vs BAL1 − 5L

LAD · Last 10

6−4 · streak L2
Aug 1vs BOS2 − 3L
Jul 31vs BOS4 − 9L
Jul 30vs SEA6 − 2W
Jul 29vs SEA4 − 2W
Jul 28vs SEA6 − 7L
Jul 26at NYM3 − 8L
Jul 25at NYM4 − 3W
Jul 24at NYM4 − 2W
Jul 22at PHI9 − 5W
Jul 21at PHI2 − 1W