bayesRatings

Dodgers at Diamondbacks

MLB · Friday, Aug 7 · 8:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final LAD 3 – ARI 4
← MLB / Aug 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
LAD000001110370
ARI010010002470
Team box
LAD·ARI
7
hits
7
1
home runs
2
4
walks
4
7
strikeouts
9
139
pitches thrown
127
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Ryan WaldschmidtARI1-4112
Nolan ArenadoARI1-4111
Andy PagesLAD1-3111
Geraldo PerdomoARI2-4001
Tommy EdmanLAD2-4001
Gabriel MorenoARI1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Roki SasakiLAD6.04215
Edwin Diaz (L)LAD0.11211
Merrill KellyARI5.22144
Kevin Ginkel (W)ARI1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +3
LAD +3
123456789
largest lead: ARI 2 · LAD 1lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was LAD 54%, ARI 46% · Updated Aug 7

Expected margin
LAD by 1.0
Expected score
LAD 5.2 – 4.2 ARI
Expected total
9.5
DodgersThe matchupDiamondbacks
−119Our fair odds+119
5.2Expected runs4.2
+0.28Power rating+0.04
5.1Runs / game4.6
3.9Allowed / game4.5
8.8Hits / game8.1
1.30Home runs / game0.96
3.8Walks drawn / game3.3
69−46Season record61−55
2−8Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
LAD chance · ARI chance
Our model fair54.3%45.7%
Kalshi64.6%40.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−11954%−18364.6%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+11946%+14640.7%———
SpreadLAD by 1.0
LADLos Angeles Dodgers−1our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks+1our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.5
Over9.5our total————
Under9.5our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Los Angeles Dodgers by 1.0 expected
Los Angeles Dodgers by 15 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 14 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 13 runs: <1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 12 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 11 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 10 runs: 1%Los Angeles Dodgers by 9 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 8 runs: 2%Los Angeles Dodgers by 7 runs: 3%Los Angeles Dodgers by 6 runs: 4%Los Angeles Dodgers by 5 runs: 5%Los Angeles Dodgers by 4 runs: 7%Los Angeles Dodgers by 3 runs: 8%Los Angeles Dodgers by 2 runs: 10%Los Angeles Dodgers by 1 run: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 16%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 8%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 15 runs: <1%
← LAD wins byARI wins by →
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 2 or more45%
Los Angeles Dodgers wins by 3 or more35%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run26%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.5 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 5%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 9%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.562%
Total over 9.544%
Total over 11.529%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
LADRoki Sasaki SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 1.50 ERA, 21 Kstarted
ARIMerrill Kelly SP · last 3 starts: 15.2 IP, 4.02 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
LAD·ARI
Aug 5 at CHC
last game
Aug 6 vs SD
1 day
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 115+ games
LAD·ARI
+0.28
rating (0 = average)
+0.04
5.1
runs / game
4.6
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.5
69−46
season record
61−55
33−23
home record
33−24
36−23
away record
28−31
L6
streak
L1
2−8
last 10
6−4
8.8
hits / game
8.1
1.30
home runs / game
0.96
3.8
walks drawn / game
3.3
7.9
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
8.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.8
0.38
errors / game
0.38

Rating Trend

LAD · ARI · 132 days
Los Angeles DodgersArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 5−5
Jul 12at LADARI 5 − 3
Jul 11at LADARI 9 − 2
Jul 10at LADARI 9 − 3
Jun 4at ARIARI 3 − 2
Jun 3at ARILAD 7 − 0
Jun 2at ARILAD 6 − 5
Jun 1at ARIARI 4 − 1
Mar 28at LADLAD 3 − 2
Mar 27at LADLAD 5 − 4
Mar 26at LADLAD 8 − 2

LAD · Last 10

2−8 · streak L6
Aug 5at CHC6 − 7L
Aug 4at CHC1 − 5L
Aug 3at CHC5 − 10L
Aug 2vs BOS4 − 8L
Aug 1vs BOS2 − 3L
Jul 31vs BOS4 − 9L
Jul 30vs SEA6 − 2W
Jul 29vs SEA4 − 2W
Jul 28vs SEA6 − 7L
Jul 26at NYM3 − 8L

ARI · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Aug 6vs SD1 − 5L
Aug 5vs SD10 − 4W
Aug 4vs SD4 − 9L
Aug 3vs SD5 − 1W
Aug 2at CLE0 − 5L
Aug 1at CLE12 − 8W
Jul 31at CLE4 − 1W
Jul 29at PIT3 − 0W
Jul 28at PIT8 − 7W
Jul 27at PIT2 − 3L