bayesRatings

Rockies at Diamondbacks

MLB · Monday, Aug 10 · 8:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final COL 0 – ARI 9
← MLB / Aug 10

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL000000000051
ARI430000029100
Team box
COL·ARI
5
hits
10
0
home runs
1
5
walks
4
6
strikeouts
5
170
pitches thrown
122
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Nolan ArenadoARI2-4114
Ketel MarteARI2-4101
Gabriel MorenoARI2-4101
Jorge BarrosaARI1-1101
Corbin CarrollARI1-3101
Ryan WaldschmidtARI2-3200
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Gabriel Hughes (L)COL4.05733
Michael SorokaARI4.13034
Zack Littell (W)ARI4.22022

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +9
COL +9
123456789
largest lead: ARI 9 · COL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 36%, ARI 64% · Updated Aug 10

Expected margin
ARI by 1.3
Expected score
ARI 5.8 – 4.4 COL
Expected total
10.2
RockiesThe matchupDiamondbacks
+175Our fair odds−175
4.4Expected runs5.8
−0.45Power rating+0.05
4.8Runs / game4.5
5.7Allowed / game4.5
8.7Hits / game8.1
1.14Home runs / game0.96
3.1Walks drawn / game3.3
46−72Season record63−56
4−6Last 106−4

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · ARI chance
Our model fair36.3%63.7%
Kalshi36.6%67.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 8:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+17536%+17336.6%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−17564%−20867.6%———
SpreadARI by 1.3
COLColorado Rockies+1.3our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−1.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.2
Over10.2our total————
Under10.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Arizona Diamondbacks by 1.3 expected
Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 16%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 8%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 5%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 15 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 16 runs: <1%
← COL wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more47%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more37%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 3%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 9%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.560%
Total over 10.543%
Total over 12.529%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLGabriel Hughes SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 5.28 ERA, 14 Kstarted
ARIMichael Soroka SP · last 3 starts: 15.0 IP, 1.20 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·ARI
Aug 9 at STL
last game
Aug 9 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
4th straight road game
home / road
8th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 118+ games
COL·ARI
−0.45
rating (0 = average)
+0.05
4.8
runs / game
4.5
5.7
runs allowed / game
4.5
46−72
season record
63−56
27−32
home record
35−25
19−40
away record
28−31
L1
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
6−4
8.7
hits / game
8.1
1.14
home runs / game
0.96
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
6.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.8
0.64
errors / game
0.37

Rating Trend

COL · ARI · 135 days
Colorado RockiesArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 5−5
May 24at ARIARI 9 − 1
May 23at ARIARI 5 − 4
May 22at ARICOL 3 − 2
May 21at ARIARI 2 − 1
May 17at COLARI 8 − 6
May 16at COLCOL 4 − 2
May 15at COLARI 9 − 1
Aug 17, 2025at COLCOL 6 − 5
Aug 16, 2025at COLCOL 10 − 7
Aug 15, 2025at COLCOL 4 − 3

COL · Last 10

4−6 · streak L1
Aug 9at STL4 − 7L
Aug 8at STL8 − 6W
Aug 7at STL2 − 3L
Aug 5vs TB0 − 4L
Aug 4vs TB7 − 9L
Aug 3vs TB9 − 13L
Aug 2vs KC8 − 1W
Aug 1vs KC12 − 6W
Jul 31vs KC3 − 1W
Jul 29at SD1 − 3L

ARI · Last 10

6−4 · streak W1
Aug 9vs LAD4 − 2W
Aug 8vs LAD1 − 2L
Aug 7vs LAD4 − 3W
Aug 6vs SD1 − 5L
Aug 5vs SD10 − 4W
Aug 4vs SD4 − 9L
Aug 3vs SD5 − 1W
Aug 2at CLE0 − 5L
Aug 1at CLE12 − 8W
Jul 31at CLE4 − 1W