bayesRatings

Rockies at Giants

MLB · Saturday, Aug 15 · 3:05 PM CT · Oracle Park · Final COL 1 – SF 7
← MLB / Aug 15

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL001000000150
SF001600007100
Team box
COL·SF
5
hits
10
0
home runs
1
0
walks
3
11
strikeouts
5
160
pitches thrown
114
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Drew GilbertSF3-4213
Cole CarriggCOL1-4001
Rafael DeversSF1-5101
Jung Hoo LeeSF2-3100
Bryce EldridgeSF1-4001
Willi CastroCOL1-4000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Michael Lorenzen (L)COL3.24631
Logan Webb (W)SF6.04107

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
SF +6
COL +6
123456789
largest lead: SF 6 · COL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 41%, SF 59% · Updated Aug 15

Expected margin
SF by 0.9
Expected score
SF 5.0 – 4.1 COL
Expected total
9.2
RockiesThe matchupGiants
+143Our fair odds−143
4.1Expected runs5.0
−0.41Power rating−0.13
4.8Runs / game4.1
5.7Allowed / game4.6
8.6Hits / game8.4
1.13Home runs / game1.11
3.1Walks drawn / game2.6
49−73Season record50−72
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · SF chance
Our model fair41.2%58.8%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:05 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+14341%+14640.7%———
SFSan Francisco Giants−14359%−17563.6%———
SpreadSF by 0.9
COLColorado Rockies+0.9our margin————
SFSan Francisco Giants−0.9our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.2
Over9.2our total————
Under9.2our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

San Francisco Giants by 0.9 expected
Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 5%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 9%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 12%San Francisco Giants by 1 run: 15%San Francisco Giants by 2 runs: 10%San Francisco Giants by 3 runs: 8%San Francisco Giants by 4 runs: 6%San Francisco Giants by 5 runs: 5%San Francisco Giants by 6 runs: 4%San Francisco Giants by 7 runs: 3%San Francisco Giants by 8 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 9 runs: 2%San Francisco Giants by 10 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 11 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 12 runs: 1%San Francisco Giants by 13 runs: <1%San Francisco Giants by 14 runs: <1%
← COL wins bySF wins by →
San Francisco Giants wins by 2 or more44%
San Francisco Giants wins by 3 or more33%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.2 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 11%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.559%
Total over 9.541%
Total over 11.527%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLMichael Lorenzen SP · last 3 starts: 11.1 IP, 9.53 ERA, 3 Kstarted
SFLogan Webb SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 1.35 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·SF
Aug 14 at SF
last game
Aug 14 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
8th straight road game
home / road
8th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 122+ games
COL·SF
−0.41
rating (0 = average)
−0.13
4.8
runs / game
4.1
5.7
runs allowed / game
4.6
49−73
season record
50−72
27−32
home record
28−32
22−41
away record
22−40
W3
streak
L2
4−6
last 10
3−7
8.6
hits / game
8.4
1.13
home runs / game
1.11
3.1
walks drawn / game
2.6
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
7.8
6.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
7.5
0.63
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

COL · SF · 140 days
Colorado RockiesSan Francisco Giants
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · SF 5−5
Aug 14at SFCOL 5 − 2
Jul 12at SFSF 3 − 1
Jul 11at SFSF 4 − 2
Jul 10at SFCOL 4 − 3
Jul 9at SFSF 8 − 2
Jul 5at COLCOL 7 − 6
Jul 4at COLSF 6 − 4
Jul 3at COLCOL 15 − 3
May 31at COLSF 19 − 6
May 30at COLCOL 8 − 3

COL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W3
Aug 14at SF5 − 2W
Aug 12at ARI6 − 4W
Aug 11at ARI3 − 2W
Aug 10at ARI0 − 9L
Aug 9at STL4 − 7L
Aug 8at STL8 − 6W
Aug 7at STL2 − 3L
Aug 5vs TB0 − 4L
Aug 4vs TB7 − 9L
Aug 3vs TB9 − 13L

SF · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Aug 14vs COL2 − 5L
Aug 12vs HOU1 − 2L
Aug 11vs HOU4 − 1W
Aug 10vs HOU3 − 6L
Aug 9vs DET1 − 3L
Aug 8vs DET0 − 8L
Aug 7vs DET5 − 2W
Aug 5at TEX0 − 6L
Aug 4at TEX4 − 5L
Aug 3at TEX5 − 1W