bayesRatings

Rockies at Diamondbacks

MLB · Wednesday, Aug 12 · 2:40 PM CT · Chase Field · Final COL 6 – ARI 4
← MLB / Aug 12

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
COL040200000680
ARI1000101104111
Team box
COL·ARI
8
hits
11
2
home runs
1
4
walks
10
7
strikeouts
3
200
pitches thrown
126
0
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Brett SullivanCOL1-4113
Corbin CarrollARI2-4211
Zac VeenCOL1-3112
Ketel MarteARI2-3101
Gabriel MorenoARI2-5001
Willi CastroCOL2-3201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Ryan Feltner (W)COL5.07232
Jordan Romano (S)COL1.00010
Merrill Kelly (L)ARI5.06632

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
ARI +5
COL +5
123456789
largest lead: ARI 1 · COL 5lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was COL 36%, ARI 64% · Updated Aug 12

Expected margin
ARI by 1.4
Expected score
ARI 5.8 – 4.3 COL
Expected total
10.1
RockiesThe matchupDiamondbacks
+178Our fair odds−178
4.3Expected runs5.8
−0.45Power rating+0.06
4.8Runs / game4.5
5.7Allowed / game4.4
8.7Hits / game8.1
1.12Home runs / game0.97
3.1Walks drawn / game3.3
47−73Season record64−57
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
COL chance · ARI chance
Our model fair36.0%64.0%
Kalshi40.7%63.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 2:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
COLColorado Rockies+17836%+14640.7%———
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−17864%−17563.6%———
SpreadARI by 1.4
COLColorado Rockies+1.4our margin————
ARIArizona Diamondbacks−1.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 10.1
Over10.1our total————
Under10.1our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Arizona Diamondbacks by 1.4 expected
Colorado Rockies by 16 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 15 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 14 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 13 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 12 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 11 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 10 runs: <1%Colorado Rockies by 9 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 8 runs: 1%Colorado Rockies by 7 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 6 runs: 2%Colorado Rockies by 5 runs: 3%Colorado Rockies by 4 runs: 4%Colorado Rockies by 3 runs: 6%Colorado Rockies by 2 runs: 8%Colorado Rockies by 1 run: 9%Arizona Diamondbacks by 1 run: 16%Arizona Diamondbacks by 2 runs: 10%Arizona Diamondbacks by 3 runs: 8%Arizona Diamondbacks by 4 runs: 7%Arizona Diamondbacks by 5 runs: 6%Arizona Diamondbacks by 6 runs: 4%Arizona Diamondbacks by 7 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 8 runs: 3%Arizona Diamondbacks by 9 runs: 2%Arizona Diamondbacks by 10 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 11 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 12 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 13 runs: 1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 14 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 15 runs: <1%Arizona Diamondbacks by 16 runs: <1%
← COL wins byARI wins by →
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 2 or more48%
Arizona Diamondbacks wins by 3 or more38%
Colorado Rockies wins by 2 or more28%
Decided by one run25%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

10.1 expected
1 runs: 1%2 runs: 1%3 runs: 4%4 runs: 4%5 runs: 8%6 runs: 6%7 runs: 10%8 runs: 7%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 6%13 runs: 6%14 runs: 4%15 runs: 4%16 runs: 3%17 runs: 3%18 runs: 2%19 runs: 2%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: 1%23 runs: 1%24 runs: <1%25 runs: <1%26 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 8.559%
Total over 10.542%
Total over 12.528%
Total from 9 to 1231%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
COLRyan Feltner SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 6.61 ERA, 9 Kstarted
ARIMerrill Kelly SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 3.31 ERA, 15 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
COL·ARI
Aug 11 at ARI
last game
Aug 11 vs COL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
7
6th straight road game
home / road
10th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 120+ games
COL·ARI
−0.45
rating (0 = average)
+0.06
4.8
runs / game
4.5
5.7
runs allowed / game
4.4
47−73
season record
64−57
27−32
home record
36−26
20−41
away record
28−31
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.7
hits / game
8.1
1.12
home runs / game
0.97
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.6
batter strikeouts / game
7.3
6.9
pitcher strikeouts / game
6.8
0.63
errors / game
0.36

Rating Trend

COL · ARI · 137 days
Colorado RockiesArizona Diamondbacks
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · ARI 6−4
Aug 11at ARICOL 3 − 2
Aug 10at ARIARI 9 − 0
May 24at ARIARI 9 − 1
May 23at ARIARI 5 − 4
May 22at ARICOL 3 − 2
May 21at ARIARI 2 − 1
May 17at COLARI 8 − 6
May 16at COLCOL 4 − 2
May 15at COLARI 9 − 1
Aug 17, 2025at COLCOL 6 − 5

COL · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Aug 11at ARI3 − 2W
Aug 10at ARI0 − 9L
Aug 9at STL4 − 7L
Aug 8at STL8 − 6W
Aug 7at STL2 − 3L
Aug 5vs TB0 − 4L
Aug 4vs TB7 − 9L
Aug 3vs TB9 − 13L
Aug 2vs KC8 − 1W
Aug 1vs KC12 − 6W

ARI · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Aug 11vs COL2 − 3L
Aug 10vs COL9 − 0W
Aug 9vs LAD4 − 2W
Aug 8vs LAD1 − 2L
Aug 7vs LAD4 − 3W
Aug 6vs SD1 − 5L
Aug 5vs SD10 − 4W
Aug 4vs SD4 − 9L
Aug 3vs SD5 − 1W
Aug 2at CLE0 − 5L