bayesRatings

Guardians at White Sox

MLB · Friday, Aug 7 · 6:40 PM CT · Rate Field · Final CLE 8 – CHW 2
← MLB / Aug 7

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
CLE2000510008100
CHW010001000280
Team box
CLE·CHW
10
hits
8
2
home runs
2
2
walks
2
6
strikeouts
12
141
pitches thrown
159
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Angel MartinezCLE2-5116
Steven KwanCLE3-5211
Braden MontgomeryCHW2-3111
Munetaka MurakamiCHW1-4111
Luisangel AcunaCHW2-4000
Austin HedgesCLE1-3001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Parker Messick (W)CLE7.04218
Noah Schultz (L)CHW0.13201

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CHW +7
CLE +7
123456789
largest lead: CHW 0 · CLE 7lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was CLE 49%, CHW 51% · Updated Aug 7

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CHW 4.5 – 4.1 CLE
Expected total
8.7
GuardiansThe matchupWhite Sox
+106Our fair odds−106
4.1Expected runs4.5
−0.02Power rating−0.03
4.0Runs / game4.8
4.2Allowed / game4.4
7.7Hits / game8.0
0.95Home runs / game1.30
3.6Walks drawn / game3.4
57−59Season record59−55
3−7Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
CLE chance · CHW chance
Our model fair48.6%51.4%
Kalshi59.7%44.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
CLECleveland Guardians+10649%−14859.7%———
CHWChicago White Sox−10651%+12444.7%———
Spreadabout even
CLECleveland Guardians+0.4our margin————
CHWChicago White Sox−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Cleveland Guardians by 13 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 5%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 7%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 9%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 16%Chicago White Sox by 1 run: 12%Chicago White Sox by 2 runs: 10%Chicago White Sox by 3 runs: 8%Chicago White Sox by 4 runs: 6%Chicago White Sox by 5 runs: 5%Chicago White Sox by 6 runs: 3%Chicago White Sox by 7 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 8 runs: 2%Chicago White Sox by 9 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 10 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 11 runs: 1%Chicago White Sox by 12 runs: <1%Chicago White Sox by 13 runs: <1%
← CLE wins byCHW wins by →
Chicago White Sox wins by 2 or more40%
Chicago White Sox wins by 3 or more29%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more32%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
CLEParker Messick SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 1.53 ERA, 18 Kstarted
CHWNoah Schultz SP · last 3 starts: 12.0 IP, 6.75 ERA, 11 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
CLE·CHW
Aug 6 vs NYM
last game
Aug 6 at BOS
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
home after a road game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 114+ games
CLE·CHW
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.0
runs / game
4.8
4.2
runs allowed / game
4.4
57−59
season record
59−55
28−31
home record
34−21
29−28
away record
25−34
L3
streak
L3
3−7
last 10
4−6
7.7
hits / game
8.0
0.95
home runs / game
1.30
3.6
walks drawn / game
3.4
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
9.1
9.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.5
0.55
errors / game
0.56

Rating Trend

CLE · CHW · 132 days
Cleveland GuardiansChicago White Sox
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CHW 4−6
Jul 5at CLECHW 7 − 6
Jul 4at CLECHW 3 − 1
Jul 3at CLECLE 4 − 3
Jul 2at CLECLE 6 − 5
Jun 24at CHWCLE 4 − 3
Jun 23at CHWCHW 2 − 1
Jun 22at CHWCHW 6 − 5
Sep 14, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 2
Sep 13, 2025at CLECLE 3 − 1
Sep 12, 2025at CLECLE 4 − 0

CLE · Last 10

3−7 · streak L3
Aug 6vs NYM6 − 13L
Aug 5vs NYM5 − 6L
Aug 4vs NYM2 − 6L
Aug 2vs ARI5 − 0W
Aug 1vs ARI8 − 12L
Jul 31vs ARI1 − 4L
Jul 29at CIN6 − 1W
Jul 28at CIN0 − 2L
Jul 28at CIN6 − 5W
Jul 26at TB0 − 1L

CHW · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Aug 6at BOS11 − 12L
Aug 5at BOS0 − 4L
Aug 4at BOS2 − 14L
Aug 2at TB9 − 1W
Aug 1at TB0 − 1L
Jul 31at TB6 − 1W
Jul 30vs NYY2 − 1W
Jul 29vs NYY6 − 5W
Jul 28vs NYY2 − 3L
Jul 27vs NYY5 − 9L