bayesRatings

Mets at Guardians

MLB · Tuesday, Aug 4 · 5:40 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final NYM 6 – CLE 2
← MLB / Aug 4

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
NYM031100010691
CLE001010000271
Team box
NYM·CLE
9
hits
7
3
home runs
0
3
walks
8
9
strikeouts
8
153
pitches thrown
136
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Luis TorrensNYM3-3114
Bo BichetteNYM2-4111
Carson BengeNYM1-4111
Jo AdellCLE2-4100
Angel MartinezCLE1-3001
Travis BazzanaCLE1-4001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Sean Manaea (W)NYM6.07257
Joey Cantillo (L)CLE5.07225

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +4
NYM +4
123456789
largest lead: CLE 0 · NYM 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 46%, CLE 54% · Updated Aug 4

Expected margin
CLE by 0.5
Expected score
CLE 4.0 – 3.5 NYM
Expected total
7.6
MetsThe matchupGuardians
+115Our fair odds−115
3.5Expected runs4.0
−0.08Power rating+0.01
4.0Runs / game3.9
4.6Allowed / game4.1
7.8Hits / game7.6
1.16Home runs / game0.96
3.2Walks drawn / game3.6
47−66Season record57−56
4−6Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · CLE chance
Our model fair46.5%53.5%
Kalshi46.7%58.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+11546%+11446.7%———
CLECleveland Guardians−11554%−14258.7%———
SpreadCLE by 0.5
NYMNew York Mets+0.5our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.5our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.6
Over7.6our total————
Under7.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Cleveland Guardians by 0.5 expected
New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 1%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 1 run: 17%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 14%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more39%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more28%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.6 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.566%
Total over 7.545%
Total over 9.527%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMSean Manaea SP · last 3 starts: 16.2 IP, 3.78 ERA, 14 Kstarted
CLEJoey Cantillo SP · last 3 starts: 12.2 IP, 6.39 ERA, 19 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·CLE
Aug 2 vs MIA
last game
Aug 2 vs ARI
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 113+ games
NYM·CLE
−0.08
rating (0 = average)
+0.01
4.0
runs / game
3.9
4.6
runs allowed / game
4.1
47−66
season record
57−56
25−34
home record
28−28
22−32
away record
29−28
L3
streak
W1
4−6
last 10
3−7
7.8
hits / game
7.6
1.16
home runs / game
0.96
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.66
errors / game
0.53

Rating Trend

NYM · CLE · 129 days
New York MetsCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 9 meetings · CLE 6−3
Aug 6, 2025at NYMCLE 4 − 1
Aug 5, 2025at NYMCLE 3 − 2
Aug 4, 2025at NYMCLE 7 − 6
May 22, 2024at CLECLE 6 − 3
May 21, 2024at CLECLE 7 − 6
May 20, 2024at CLECLE 3 − 1
May 21, 2023at NYMNYM 2 − 1
May 21, 2023at NYMNYM 5 − 4
May 19, 2023at NYMNYM 10 − 9

NYM · Last 10

4−6 · streak L3
Aug 2vs MIA0 − 2L
Aug 1vs MIA2 − 6L
Jul 31vs MIA2 − 5L
Jul 30vs MIA4 − 2W
Jul 29vs ATL0 − 1L
Jul 29vs ATL3 − 2W
Jul 27vs ATL14 − 3W
Jul 26vs LAD8 − 3W
Jul 25vs LAD3 − 4L
Jul 24vs LAD2 − 4L

CLE · Last 10

3−7 · streak W1
Aug 2vs ARI5 − 0W
Aug 1vs ARI8 − 12L
Jul 31vs ARI1 − 4L
Jul 29at CIN6 − 1W
Jul 28at CIN0 − 2L
Jul 28at CIN6 − 5W
Jul 26at TB0 − 1L
Jul 25at TB0 − 3L
Jul 24at TB3 − 11L
Jul 23vs MIN1 − 3L