bayesRatings

Braves at Mets

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 29 · 6:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final ATL 1 – NYM 0
← MLB / Jul 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL000001000170
NYM000000000020
Team box
ATL·NYM
7
hits
2
0
home runs
0
1
walks
1
12
strikeouts
12
127
pitches thrown
162
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Matt OlsonATL1-4001
Drake BaldwinATL2-4000
Ozzie AlbiesATL1-3000
Mauricio DubonATL1-4000
Eli WhiteATL1-2000
Jim JarvisATL1-4100
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Chris Sale (W)ATL6.02009
Raisel Iglesias (S)ATL1.00000
Christian Scott (L)NYM6.05117

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +3
ATL +3
123456789
largest lead: NYM 0 · ATL 1lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 53%, NYM 47% · Updated Jul 29

Expected margin
ATL by 0.7
Expected score
ATL 4.8 – 4.2 NYM
Expected total
9.0
BravesThe matchupMets
−113Our fair odds+113
4.8Expected runs4.2
+0.12Power rating−0.06
4.9Runs / game4.2
4.0Allowed / game4.6
8.5Hits / game7.9
1.32Home runs / game1.21
3.0Walks drawn / game3.2
62−44Season record45−62
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · NYM chance
Our model fair53.0%47.0%
Kalshino two-sided price
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshi Polymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−11353%————
NYMNew York Mets+11347%————
SpreadATL by 0.7
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.7our margin————
NYMNew York Mets+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.7 expected
Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 11%New York Mets by 1 run: 17%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 3 runs: 6%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byNYM wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more43%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more32%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLChris Sale SP · last 3 starts: 16.0 IP, 1.69 ERA, 22 Kstarted
NYMChristian Scott SP · last 3 starts: 14.1 IP, 1.88 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·NYM
Jul 29 at NYM
last game
Jul 29 vs ATL
same day
days of rest
same day
7
games in last 7 days
6
6th straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 106+ games
ATL·NYM
+0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.9
runs / game
4.2
4.0
runs allowed / game
4.6
62−44
season record
45−62
32−20
home record
23−30
30−24
away record
22−32
L1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.5
hits / game
7.9
1.32
home runs / game
1.21
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.46
errors / game
0.66

Rating Trend

ATL · NYM · 123 days
Atlanta BravesNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 6−4
Jul 27at NYMNYM 14 − 3
Jul 6at ATLNYM 7 − 6
Jul 5at ATLNYM 10 − 9
Jul 4at ATLATL 14 − 3
Jul 3at ATLATL 5 − 3
Jun 14at NYMNYM 8 − 1
Jun 13at NYMATL 3 − 1
Jun 12at NYMNYM 7 − 5
Aug 24, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 3
Aug 23, 2025at ATLNYM 9 − 2

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jul 27at NYM3 − 14L
Jul 26at BAL3 − 2W
Jul 25at BAL2 − 3L
Jul 24at BAL7 − 6W
Jul 23vs SD6 − 5W
Jul 22vs SD7 − 6W
Jul 21vs SD3 − 8L
Jul 20vs SD3 − 2W
Jul 19vs TEX8 − 5W
Jul 18vs TEX6 − 7L

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jul 27vs ATL14 − 3W
Jul 26vs LAD8 − 3W
Jul 25vs LAD3 − 4L
Jul 24vs LAD2 − 4L
Jul 22at MIL3 − 4L
Jul 21at MIL4 − 0W
Jul 20at MIL3 − 8L
Jul 19at PHI6 − 1W
Jul 18at PHI1 − 6L
Jul 16at PHI4 − 1W