bayesRatings

Braves at Mets

MLB · Monday, Jul 27 · 6:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final ATL 3 – NYM 14
← MLB / Jul 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL100200000360
NYM1020024514190
Team box
ATL·NYM
6
hits
19
1
home runs
4
1
walks
6
9
strikeouts
7
175
pitches thrown
118
0
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Francisco LindorNYM3-5226
Tyrone TaylorNYM3-5313
Ozzie AlbiesATL2-4113
Marcus SemienNYM3-4312
Bo BichetteNYM3-5001
A.J. EwingNYM3-5201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Martin PerezATL5.08314
Connor Thomas (L)ATL2.2101152
Zac Thornton (W)NYM6.16315

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +11
ATL +11
123456789
largest lead: NYM 11 · ATL 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 54%, NYM 46% · Updated Jul 27

Expected margin
ATL by 0.8
Expected score
ATL 4.9 – 4.1 NYM
Expected total
9.0
BravesThe matchupMets
−117Our fair odds+117
4.9Expected runs4.1
+0.13Power rating−0.08
5.0Runs / game4.1
3.9Allowed / game4.7
8.5Hits / game7.8
1.32Home runs / game1.18
3.1Walks drawn / game3.2
62−43Season record44−62
7−3Last 104−6

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · NYM chance
Our model fair53.9%46.1%
Kalshi51.7%52.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−11754%−10751.8%———
NYMNew York Mets+11746%−11252.7%———
SpreadATL by 0.8
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.8our margin————
NYMNew York Mets+0.8our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.8 expected
Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 11%New York Mets by 1 run: 17%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 3 runs: 6%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byNYM wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more43%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more33%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more29%
Decided by one run27%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLMartin Perez SP · last 3 starts: 13.1 IP, 5.40 ERA, 5 Kstarted
NYMZac Thornton SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 0.47 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·NYM
Jul 26 at BAL
last game
Jul 26 vs LAD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
6
4th straight road game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 105+ games
ATL·NYM
+0.13
rating (0 = average)
−0.08
5.0
runs / game
4.1
3.9
runs allowed / game
4.7
62−43
season record
44−62
32−20
home record
22−30
30−23
away record
22−32
W1
streak
W1
7−3
last 10
4−6
8.5
hits / game
7.8
1.32
home runs / game
1.18
3.1
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.47
errors / game
0.67

Rating Trend

ATL · NYM · 121 days
Atlanta BravesNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 6−4
Jul 6at ATLNYM 7 − 6
Jul 5at ATLNYM 10 − 9
Jul 4at ATLATL 14 − 3
Jul 3at ATLATL 5 − 3
Jun 14at NYMNYM 8 − 1
Jun 13at NYMATL 3 − 1
Jun 12at NYMNYM 7 − 5
Aug 24, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 3
Aug 23, 2025at ATLNYM 9 − 2
Aug 22, 2025at ATLNYM 12 − 7

ATL · Last 10

7−3 · streak W1
Jul 26at BAL3 − 2W
Jul 25at BAL2 − 3L
Jul 24at BAL7 − 6W
Jul 23vs SD6 − 5W
Jul 22vs SD7 − 6W
Jul 21vs SD3 − 8L
Jul 20vs SD3 − 2W
Jul 19vs TEX8 − 5W
Jul 18vs TEX6 − 7L
Jul 17vs TEX15 − 1W

NYM · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jul 26vs LAD8 − 3W
Jul 25vs LAD3 − 4L
Jul 24vs LAD2 − 4L
Jul 22at MIL3 − 4L
Jul 21at MIL4 − 0W
Jul 20at MIL3 − 8L
Jul 19at PHI6 − 1W
Jul 18at PHI1 − 6L
Jul 16at PHI4 − 1W
Jul 12vs BOS2 − 3L