bayesRatings

Marlins at Mets

MLB · Saturday, Aug 1 · 3:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final MIA 6 – NYM 2
← MLB / Aug 1

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA1201020006100
NYM020000000272
Team box
MIA·NYM
10
hits
7
2
home runs
1
5
walks
0
6
strikeouts
5
106
pitches thrown
177
0
errors
2
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Javier SanojaMIA2-5112
Griffin ConineMIA2-3111
Tyrone TaylorNYM1-3112
Liam HicksMIA2-3002
Esteury RuizMIA2-3100
Otto LopezMIA1-4201
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Tyler Phillips (W)MIA5.06203
Lake Bachar (S)MIA3.01002
Zac Thornton (L)NYM4.26332

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +4
MIA +4
123456789
largest lead: NYM 0 · MIA 4lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 50%, NYM 50% · Updated Aug 1

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYM 4.4 – 4.4 MIA
Expected total
8.8
MarlinsThe matchupMets
+101Our fair odds−101
4.4Expected runs4.4
−0.01Power rating−0.06
4.4Runs / game4.1
4.3Allowed / game4.6
8.3Hits / game7.8
1.04Home runs / game1.17
3.3Walks drawn / game3.2
56−55Season record47−64
4−6Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · NYM chance
Our model fair49.8%50.2%
Kalshi47.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 3:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+10150%+10947.7%———
NYMNew York Mets−10150%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
MIAMiami MarlinsPKour margin————
NYMNew York MetsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 10%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 14%New York Mets by 1 run: 14%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byNYM wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more36%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more26%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIATyler Phillips SP · last 3 starts: 10.1 IP, 5.23 ERA, 8 Kstarted
NYMZac Thornton SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 1.40 ERA, 12 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·NYM
Jul 31 at NYM
last game
Jul 31 vs MIA
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
7
3rd straight road game
home / road
9th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 111+ games
MIA·NYM
−0.01
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.4
runs / game
4.1
4.3
runs allowed / game
4.6
56−55
season record
47−64
34−23
home record
25−32
22−32
away record
22−32
W1
streak
L1
4−6
last 10
5−5
8.3
hits / game
7.8
1.04
home runs / game
1.17
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.5
8.4
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.0
0.65
errors / game
0.66

Rating Trend

MIA · NYM · 126 days
Miami MarlinsNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 5−5
Jul 31at NYMMIA 5 − 2
Jul 30at NYMNYM 4 − 2
May 31at NYMNYM 10 − 1
May 30at NYMNYM 6 − 1
May 29at NYMNYM 9 − 7
May 24at MIAMIA 4 − 0
May 23at MIAMIA 4 − 1
May 22at MIAMIA 2 − 1
Sep 28, 2025at MIAMIA 4 − 0
Sep 27, 2025at MIANYM 5 − 0

MIA · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jul 31at NYM5 − 2W
Jul 30at NYM2 − 4L
Jul 29vs PHI8 − 6W
Jul 28vs PHI1 − 0W
Jul 27vs PHI8 − 7W
Jul 26vs SD3 − 5L
Jul 25vs SD2 − 7L
Jul 24vs SD2 − 4L
Jul 22at HOU2 − 5L
Jul 21at HOU3 − 5L

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 31vs MIA2 − 5L
Jul 30vs MIA4 − 2W
Jul 29vs ATL0 − 1L
Jul 29vs ATL3 − 2W
Jul 27vs ATL14 − 3W
Jul 26vs LAD8 − 3W
Jul 25vs LAD3 − 4L
Jul 24vs LAD2 − 4L
Jul 22at MIL3 − 4L
Jul 21at MIL4 − 0W