bayesRatings

Phillies at Marlins

MLB · Tuesday, Jul 28 · 5:40 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final PHI 0 – MIA 1
← MLB / Jul 28

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI000000000041
MIA10000000161
Team box
PHI·MIA
4
hits
6
0
home runs
1
1
walks
5
7
strikeouts
6
135
pitches thrown
115
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kyle StowersMIA1-3111
Liam HicksMIA2-4000
Bryan De La CruzPHI2-3000
Griffin ConineMIA1-2000
Xavier EdwardsMIA1-2000
Joe MackMIA1-2000
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Aaron Nola (L)PHI5.25134
Sandy Alcantara (W)MIA7.04015
Pete Fairbanks (S)MIA1.00002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +3
PHI +3
123456789
largest lead: MIA 1 · PHI 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 51%, MIA 49% · Updated Jul 28

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PHI 4.6 – 4.2 MIA
Expected total
8.8
PhilliesThe matchupMarlins
−105Our fair odds+105
4.6Expected runs4.2
+0.08Power rating−0.03
4.4Runs / game4.4
4.5Allowed / game4.4
7.9Hits / game8.4
1.28Home runs / game1.02
2.9Walks drawn / game3.3
57−50Season record53−54
3−7Last 101−9

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · MIA chance
Our model fair51.3%48.7%
Kalshi46.7%57.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−10551%+11446.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins+10549%−13757.7%———
Spreadabout even
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.3our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 13%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 15%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byMIA wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more39%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more29%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIAaron Nola SP · last 3 starts: 16.1 IP, 5.51 ERA, 18 Kstarted
MIASandy Alcantara SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 4.05 ERA, 18 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·MIA
Jul 27 at MIA
last game
Jul 27 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 107+ games
PHI·MIA
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.4
runs / game
4.4
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.4
57−50
season record
53−54
28−27
home record
32−23
29−23
away record
21−31
L1
streak
W1
3−7
last 10
1−9
7.9
hits / game
8.4
1.28
home runs / game
1.02
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
9.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.53
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

PHI · MIA · 122 days
Philadelphia PhilliesMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 3−7
Jul 27at MIAMIA 8 − 7
Jun 17at PHIMIA 12 − 4
Jun 16at PHIPHI 8 − 2
Jun 15at PHIPHI 7 − 0
May 4at MIAPHI 1 − 0
May 3at MIAPHI 7 − 2
May 2at MIAMIA 4 − 0
May 1at MIAPHI 6 − 5
Sep 25, 2025at PHIPHI 1 − 0
Sep 24, 2025at PHIPHI 11 − 1

PHI · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Jul 27at MIA7 − 8L
Jul 26vs NYY11 − 4W
Jul 25vs NYY1 − 3L
Jul 24vs NYY0 − 1L
Jul 22vs LAD5 − 9L
Jul 21vs LAD1 − 2L
Jul 20vs LAD10 − 7W
Jul 19vs NYM1 − 6L
Jul 18vs NYM6 − 1W
Jul 16vs NYM1 − 4L

MIA · Last 10

1−9 · streak W1
Jul 27vs PHI8 − 7W
Jul 26vs SD3 − 5L
Jul 25vs SD2 − 7L
Jul 24vs SD2 − 4L
Jul 22at HOU2 − 5L
Jul 21at HOU3 − 5L
Jul 20at HOU5 − 8L
Jul 19at MIL1 − 3L
Jul 18at MIL6 − 8L
Jul 17at MIL1 − 2L