bayesRatings

Phillies at Marlins

MLB · Monday, Jul 27 · 5:40 PM CT · loanDepot park · Final PHI 7 – MIA 8
← MLB / Jul 27

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI2000040107102
MIA2300000038141
Team box
PHI·MIA
10
hits
14
1
home runs
2
4
walks
2
9
strikeouts
9
158
pitches thrown
162
2
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Heriberto HernandezMIA2-5213
Griffin ConineMIA2-5112
Bryce HarperPHI1-3212
Otto LopezMIA3-5201
Jakob MarseeMIA2-3201
J.T. RealmutoPHI1-2102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Zack WheelerPHI3.06516
Jhoan Duran (L)PHI0.15300
Tyler PhillipsMIA5.03225
Calvin Faucher (W)MIA1.00012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +3
PHI +3
123456789
largest lead: MIA 3 · PHI 2lead changes: 3

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 52%, MIA 48% · Updated Jul 27

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PHI 4.6 – 4.2 MIA
Expected total
8.8
PhilliesThe matchupMarlins
−107Our fair odds+107
4.6Expected runs4.2
+0.09Power rating−0.03
4.3Runs / game4.4
4.4Allowed / game4.4
7.9Hits / game8.3
1.28Home runs / game1.01
2.9Walks drawn / game3.3
57−49Season record52−54
4−6Last 100−10

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · MIA chance
Our model fair51.7%48.3%
Kalshi66.6%37.6%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−10752%−19966.6%———
MIAMiami Marlins+10748%+16637.6%———
Spreadabout even
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.3our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins+0.3our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.8
Over8.8our total————
Under8.8our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 13%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 15%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 9%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byMIA wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more39%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more28%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more33%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.8 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.568%
Total over 8.548%
Total over 10.531%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIZack Wheeler SP · last 3 starts: 20.0 IP, 1.35 ERA, 33 Kstarted
MIATyler Phillips SP · last 3 starts: 10.1 IP, 3.48 ERA, 6 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·MIA
Jul 26 vs NYY
last game
Jul 26 vs SD
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
4th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 106+ games
PHI·MIA
+0.09
rating (0 = average)
−0.03
4.3
runs / game
4.4
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.4
57−49
season record
52−54
28−27
home record
31−23
29−22
away record
21−31
W1
streak
L12
4−6
last 10
0−10
7.9
hits / game
8.3
1.28
home runs / game
1.01
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
9.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.52
errors / game
0.64

Rating Trend

PHI · MIA · 121 days
Philadelphia PhilliesMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 3−7
Jun 17at PHIMIA 12 − 4
Jun 16at PHIPHI 8 − 2
Jun 15at PHIPHI 7 − 0
May 4at MIAPHI 1 − 0
May 3at MIAPHI 7 − 2
May 2at MIAMIA 4 − 0
May 1at MIAPHI 6 − 5
Sep 25, 2025at PHIPHI 1 − 0
Sep 24, 2025at PHIPHI 11 − 1
Sep 23, 2025at PHIMIA 6 − 5

PHI · Last 10

4−6 · streak W1
Jul 26vs NYY11 − 4W
Jul 25vs NYY1 − 3L
Jul 24vs NYY0 − 1L
Jul 22vs LAD5 − 9L
Jul 21vs LAD1 − 2L
Jul 20vs LAD10 − 7W
Jul 19vs NYM1 − 6L
Jul 18vs NYM6 − 1W
Jul 16vs NYM1 − 4L
Jul 12at DET5 − 0W

MIA · Last 10

0−10 · streak L10
Jul 26vs SD3 − 5L
Jul 25vs SD2 − 7L
Jul 24vs SD2 − 4L
Jul 22at HOU2 − 5L
Jul 21at HOU3 − 5L
Jul 20at HOU5 − 8L
Jul 19at MIL1 − 3L
Jul 18at MIL6 − 8L
Jul 17at MIL1 − 2L
Jul 12vs CLE2 − 5L