bayesRatings

Braves at Mets

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 29 · 12:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final ATL 2 – NYM 3
← MLB / Jul 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
ATL000002000271
NYM00002010361
Team box
ATL·NYM
7
hits
6
1
home runs
0
2
walks
5
6
strikeouts
9
145
pitches thrown
130
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Matt OlsonATL1-4112
Carson BengeNYM2-4001
Eli WhiteATL2-2000
Drake BaldwinATL2-4100
Francisco AlvarezNYM1-4001
A.J. EwingNYM1-2101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
AJ Smith-ShawverATL4.14224
Dylan Dodd (L)ATL1.01122
Sean ManaeaNYM6.05224
Huascar Brazoban (W)NYM1.00000
Devin Williams (S)NYM1.01001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +3
ATL +3
123456789
largest lead: NYM 2 · ATL 0lead changes: 0

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was ATL 53%, NYM 47% · Updated Jul 29

Expected margin
ATL by 0.7
Expected score
ATL 4.8 – 4.2 NYM
Expected total
9.0
BravesThe matchupMets
−113Our fair odds+113
4.8Expected runs4.2
+0.12Power rating−0.06
4.9Runs / game4.2
4.0Allowed / game4.6
8.5Hits / game7.9
1.32Home runs / game1.21
3.0Walks drawn / game3.2
62−44Season record45−62
6−4Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
ATL chance · NYM chance
Our model fair53.0%47.0%
Kalshi52.7%51.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 12:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
ATLAtlanta Braves−11353%−11252.7%———
NYMNew York Mets+11347%−10751.8%———
SpreadATL by 0.7
ATLAtlanta Braves−0.7our margin————
NYMNew York Mets+0.7our margin————
Totalwe expect 9.0
Over9.0our total————
Under9.0our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Atlanta Braves by 0.7 expected
Atlanta Braves by 14 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 13 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 12 runs: <1%Atlanta Braves by 11 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 10 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 9 runs: 1%Atlanta Braves by 8 runs: 2%Atlanta Braves by 7 runs: 3%Atlanta Braves by 6 runs: 4%Atlanta Braves by 5 runs: 5%Atlanta Braves by 4 runs: 6%Atlanta Braves by 3 runs: 8%Atlanta Braves by 2 runs: 10%Atlanta Braves by 1 run: 11%New York Mets by 1 run: 17%New York Mets by 2 runs: 9%New York Mets by 3 runs: 6%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%New York Mets by 14 runs: <1%
← ATL wins byNYM wins by →
Atlanta Braves wins by 2 or more43%
Atlanta Braves wins by 3 or more32%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

9.0 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: 1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%24 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 7.558%
Total over 9.540%
Total over 11.525%
Total from 8 to 1133%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
ATLAJ Smith-Shawver SP · last 3 starts: 11.2 IP, 6.94 ERA, 8 Kstarted
NYMSean Manaea SP · last 3 starts: 17.2 IP, 3.57 ERA, 16 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
ATL·NYM
Jul 27 at NYM
last game
Jul 27 vs ATL
1 day
days of rest
1 day
6
games in last 7 days
5
5th straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 106+ games
ATL·NYM
+0.12
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.9
runs / game
4.2
4.0
runs allowed / game
4.6
62−44
season record
45−62
32−20
home record
23−30
30−24
away record
22−32
L1
streak
W2
6−4
last 10
5−5
8.5
hits / game
7.9
1.32
home runs / game
1.21
3.0
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.1
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.6
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.46
errors / game
0.66

Rating Trend

ATL · NYM · 123 days
Atlanta BravesNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 6−4
Jul 27at NYMNYM 14 − 3
Jul 6at ATLNYM 7 − 6
Jul 5at ATLNYM 10 − 9
Jul 4at ATLATL 14 − 3
Jul 3at ATLATL 5 − 3
Jun 14at NYMNYM 8 − 1
Jun 13at NYMATL 3 − 1
Jun 12at NYMNYM 7 − 5
Aug 24, 2025at ATLATL 4 − 3
Aug 23, 2025at ATLNYM 9 − 2

ATL · Last 10

6−4 · streak L1
Jul 27at NYM3 − 14L
Jul 26at BAL3 − 2W
Jul 25at BAL2 − 3L
Jul 24at BAL7 − 6W
Jul 23vs SD6 − 5W
Jul 22vs SD7 − 6W
Jul 21vs SD3 − 8L
Jul 20vs SD3 − 2W
Jul 19vs TEX8 − 5W
Jul 18vs TEX6 − 7L

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak W2
Jul 27vs ATL14 − 3W
Jul 26vs LAD8 − 3W
Jul 25vs LAD3 − 4L
Jul 24vs LAD2 − 4L
Jul 22at MIL3 − 4L
Jul 21at MIL4 − 0W
Jul 20at MIL3 − 8L
Jul 19at PHI6 − 1W
Jul 18at PHI1 − 6L
Jul 16at PHI4 − 1W