bayesRatings

Marlins at Mets

MLB · Thursday, Jul 30 · 6:10 PM CT · Citi Field · Final MIA 2 – NYM 4
← MLB / Jul 30

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
MIA000100100271
NYM00000202461
Team box
MIA·NYM
7
hits
6
2
home runs
0
3
walks
2
9
strikeouts
8
143
pitches thrown
130
1
errors
1
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Kyle StowersMIA1-3111
Jakob MarseeMIA1-4111
Luis Robert Jr.NYM1-4002
Graham PauleyMIA2-3000
Liam HicksMIA2-3000
Francisco LindorNYM1-4101
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Eury PerezMIA6.03126
Michael Petersen (L)MIA0.23201
Nolan McLeanNYM6.16226
Brooks Raley (W)NYM1.21001
Devin Williams (S)NYM1.00012

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
NYM +3
MIA +3
123456789
largest lead: NYM 2 · MIA 1lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was MIA 50%, NYM 50% · Updated Jul 30

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
NYM 4.5 – 4.5 MIA
Expected total
8.9
MarlinsThe matchupMets
+101Our fair odds−101
4.5Expected runs4.5
−0.02Power rating−0.06
4.4Runs / game4.1
4.4Allowed / game4.6
8.3Hits / game7.8
1.03Home runs / game1.18
3.3Walks drawn / game3.2
55−54Season record46−63
3−7Last 105−5

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
MIA chance · NYM chance
Our model fair49.7%50.3%
Kalshi48.7%55.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 6:10 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
MIAMiami Marlins+10150%+10548.7%———
NYMNew York Mets−10150%−12655.7%———
Spreadabout even
MIAMiami MarlinsPKour margin————
NYMNew York MetsPKour margin————
Totalwe expect 8.9
Over8.9our total————
Under8.9our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 10%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 14%New York Mets by 1 run: 14%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 5 runs: 4%New York Mets by 6 runs: 3%New York Mets by 7 runs: 2%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 10 runs: 1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 13 runs: <1%
← MIA wins byNYM wins by →
New York Mets wins by 2 or more36%
New York Mets wins by 3 or more26%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more36%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.9 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 10%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 7%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.569%
Total over 8.549%
Total over 10.532%
Total from 7 to 1036%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
MIAEury Perez SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 2.37 ERA, 17 Kstarted
NYMNolan McLean SP · last 3 starts: 18.0 IP, 1.00 ERA, 24 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
MIA·NYM
Jul 29 vs PHI
last game
Jul 29 vs ATL
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
road after a home game
home / road
7th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 109+ games
MIA·NYM
−0.02
rating (0 = average)
−0.06
4.4
runs / game
4.1
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.6
55−54
season record
46−63
34−23
home record
24−31
21−31
away record
22−32
W3
streak
L1
3−7
last 10
5−5
8.3
hits / game
7.8
1.03
home runs / game
1.18
3.3
walks drawn / game
3.2
8.2
batter strikeouts / game
8.4
8.3
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.1
0.64
errors / game
0.66

Rating Trend

MIA · NYM · 124 days
Miami MarlinsNew York Mets
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · NYM 4−6
May 31at NYMNYM 10 − 1
May 30at NYMNYM 6 − 1
May 29at NYMNYM 9 − 7
May 24at MIAMIA 4 − 0
May 23at MIAMIA 4 − 1
May 22at MIAMIA 2 − 1
Sep 28, 2025at MIAMIA 4 − 0
Sep 27, 2025at MIANYM 5 − 0
Sep 26, 2025at MIAMIA 6 − 2
Aug 31, 2025at NYMMIA 5 − 1

MIA · Last 10

3−7 · streak W3
Jul 29vs PHI8 − 6W
Jul 28vs PHI1 − 0W
Jul 27vs PHI8 − 7W
Jul 26vs SD3 − 5L
Jul 25vs SD2 − 7L
Jul 24vs SD2 − 4L
Jul 22at HOU2 − 5L
Jul 21at HOU3 − 5L
Jul 20at HOU5 − 8L
Jul 19at MIL1 − 3L

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak L1
Jul 29vs ATL0 − 1L
Jul 29vs ATL3 − 2W
Jul 27vs ATL14 − 3W
Jul 26vs LAD8 − 3W
Jul 25vs LAD3 − 4L
Jul 24vs LAD2 − 4L
Jul 22at MIL3 − 4L
Jul 21at MIL4 − 0W
Jul 20at MIL3 − 8L
Jul 19at PHI6 − 1W