bayesRatings

Phillies at Marlins

MLB · Wednesday, Jul 29 · 11:10 AM CT · loanDepot park · Final PHI 6 – MIA 8
← MLB / Jul 29

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team123456789THE
PHI002130000691
MIA00003032880
Team box
PHI·MIA
9
hits
8
1
home runs
2
4
walks
5
7
strikeouts
6
135
pitches thrown
132
1
errors
0
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Griffin ConineMIA1-1112
Heriberto HernandezMIA1-4112
Trea TurnerPHI2-5111
Otto LopezMIA2-5102
Xavier EdwardsMIA1-3002
Bryson StottPHI1-2102
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Jesus LuzardoPHI6.16635
Jonathan Bowlan (L)PHI1.01211
Ryan GustoMIA5.09623
Tyler Zuber (W)MIA1.00002
Pete Fairbanks (S)MIA1.00001

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
MIA +6
PHI +6
123456789
largest lead: MIA 2 · PHI 6lead changes: 1

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was PHI 51%, MIA 49% · Updated Jul 29

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
PHI 4.4 – 4.2 MIA
Expected total
8.7
PhilliesThe matchupMarlins
−105Our fair odds+105
4.4Expected runs4.2
+0.08Power rating−0.02
4.3Runs / game4.4
4.4Allowed / game4.3
7.9Hits / game8.3
1.27Home runs / game1.02
2.9Walks drawn / game3.3
57−51Season record54−54
3−7Last 102−8

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
PHI chance · MIA chance
Our model fair51.1%48.9%
Kalshi62.7%41.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 11:10 AM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−10551%−16862.7%———
MIAMiami Marlins+10549%+14041.7%———
Spreadabout even
PHIPhiladelphia Phillies−0.2our margin————
MIAMiami Marlins+0.2our margin————
Totalwe expect 8.7
Over8.7our total————
Under8.7our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
Philadelphia Phillies by 13 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 12 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 11 runs: <1%Philadelphia Phillies by 10 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 9 runs: 1%Philadelphia Phillies by 8 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 7 runs: 2%Philadelphia Phillies by 6 runs: 3%Philadelphia Phillies by 5 runs: 4%Philadelphia Phillies by 4 runs: 6%Philadelphia Phillies by 3 runs: 7%Philadelphia Phillies by 2 runs: 10%Philadelphia Phillies by 1 run: 14%Miami Marlins by 1 run: 15%Miami Marlins by 2 runs: 10%Miami Marlins by 3 runs: 7%Miami Marlins by 4 runs: 5%Miami Marlins by 5 runs: 4%Miami Marlins by 6 runs: 3%Miami Marlins by 7 runs: 2%Miami Marlins by 8 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 9 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 10 runs: 1%Miami Marlins by 11 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 12 runs: <1%Miami Marlins by 13 runs: <1%
← PHI wins byMIA wins by →
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 2 or more38%
Philadelphia Phillies wins by 3 or more27%
Miami Marlins wins by 2 or more34%
Decided by one run28%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

8.7 expected
1 runs: 2%2 runs: 2%3 runs: 6%4 runs: 5%5 runs: 11%6 runs: 7%7 runs: 12%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 8%12 runs: 5%13 runs: 5%14 runs: 3%15 runs: 3%16 runs: 2%17 runs: 2%18 runs: 1%19 runs: 1%20 runs: 1%21 runs: <1%22 runs: <1%23 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 6.567%
Total over 8.547%
Total over 10.530%
Total from 7 to 1037%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
PHIJesus Luzardo SP · last 3 starts: 19.0 IP, 0.95 ERA, 27 Kstarted
MIARyan Gusto SP · last 3 starts: 11.0 IP, 1.64 ERA, 14 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
PHI·MIA
Jul 28 at MIA
last game
Jul 28 vs PHI
0 days
days of rest
0 days
6
games in last 7 days
6
3rd straight road game
home / road
6th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 108+ games
PHI·MIA
+0.08
rating (0 = average)
−0.02
4.3
runs / game
4.4
4.4
runs allowed / game
4.3
57−51
season record
54−54
28−27
home record
33−23
29−24
away record
21−31
L2
streak
W2
3−7
last 10
2−8
7.9
hits / game
8.3
1.27
home runs / game
1.02
2.9
walks drawn / game
3.3
8.9
batter strikeouts / game
8.2
9.8
pitcher strikeouts / game
8.4
0.54
errors / game
0.65

Rating Trend

PHI · MIA · 123 days
Philadelphia PhilliesMiami Marlins
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · MIA 4−6
Jul 28at MIAMIA 1 − 0
Jul 27at MIAMIA 8 − 7
Jun 17at PHIMIA 12 − 4
Jun 16at PHIPHI 8 − 2
Jun 15at PHIPHI 7 − 0
May 4at MIAPHI 1 − 0
May 3at MIAPHI 7 − 2
May 2at MIAMIA 4 − 0
May 1at MIAPHI 6 − 5
Sep 25, 2025at PHIPHI 1 − 0

PHI · Last 10

3−7 · streak L2
Jul 28at MIA0 − 1L
Jul 27at MIA7 − 8L
Jul 26vs NYY11 − 4W
Jul 25vs NYY1 − 3L
Jul 24vs NYY0 − 1L
Jul 22vs LAD5 − 9L
Jul 21vs LAD1 − 2L
Jul 20vs LAD10 − 7W
Jul 19vs NYM1 − 6L
Jul 18vs NYM6 − 1W

MIA · Last 10

2−8 · streak W2
Jul 28vs PHI1 − 0W
Jul 27vs PHI8 − 7W
Jul 26vs SD3 − 5L
Jul 25vs SD2 − 7L
Jul 24vs SD2 − 4L
Jul 22at HOU2 − 5L
Jul 21at HOU3 − 5L
Jul 20at HOU5 − 8L
Jul 19at MIL1 − 3L
Jul 18at MIL6 − 8L