bayesRatings

Mets at Guardians

MLB · Wednesday, Aug 5 · 5:40 PM CT · Progressive Field · Final NYM 6 – CLE 5
← MLB / Aug 5

Final Box Score

from the game summary
Team12345678910THE
NYM0021010011682
CLE00012020005113
Team box
NYM·CLE
8
hits
11
3
home runs
0
2
walks
5
16
strikeouts
13
191
pitches thrown
170
2
errors
3
Top hitters
PlayerTeamH-ABRHRRBI
Angel GenaoCLE4-5101
Jorge PolancoNYM2-4111
Nathaniel LoweCLE2-6002
Brett BatyNYM1-3111
Carson BengeNYM1-5211
Patrick BaileyCLE2-5001
Pitchers
PitcherTeamIPHERBBK
Christian ScottNYM5.06327
Chayce McDermott (W)NYM2.00012
Daniel Duarte (S)NYM1.00010
Tanner BibeeCLE5.243010
Matt Festa (L)CLE1.01002

For context, not in our forecast.

Game Flow

score margin
CLE +3
NYM +3
12345678910
largest lead: CLE 1 · NYM 3lead changes: 2

For context, not in our forecast.

Final · our forecast was NYM 47%, CLE 53% · Updated Aug 5

Expected margin
Even
Expected score
CLE 4.0 – 3.6 NYM
Expected total
7.6
MetsThe matchupGuardians
+114Our fair odds−114
3.6Expected runs4.0
−0.07Power rating−0.00
4.1Runs / game3.9
4.5Allowed / game4.1
7.8Hits / game7.6
1.18Home runs / game0.96
3.2Walks drawn / game3.6
48−66Season record57−57
5−5Last 103−7

Prediction markets

Kalshi · Polymarket US · ProphetX · Novig
NYM chance · CLE chance
Our model fair46.7%53.3%
Kalshi51.7%53.7%
Polymarket USno two-sided price
ProphetXno two-sided price
Novigno two-sided price
Full price table
TeamOur modelfairKalshipre-game · 5:40 PM CTPolymarket US ProphetX Novig 
Moneyline
NYMNew York Mets+11447%−10751.8%———
CLECleveland Guardians−11453%−11653.7%———
Spreadabout even
NYMNew York Mets+0.4our margin————
CLECleveland Guardians−0.4our margin————
Totalwe expect 7.6
Over7.6our total————
Under7.6our total————

These are each venue’s last prices before the start (Kalshi’s moneyline: its pre-game close). Odds are the price to buy that side now, taker fee included; the small percent is the implied chance of that same price. Highlighted is the best price in the row among venues on the same line. — means not listed (hover or tap for why). A market price is not the true chance of winning.

Margin range

Even game expected
New York Mets by 12 runs: <1%New York Mets by 11 runs: <1%New York Mets by 10 runs: <1%New York Mets by 9 runs: 1%New York Mets by 8 runs: 1%New York Mets by 7 runs: 1%New York Mets by 6 runs: 2%New York Mets by 5 runs: 3%New York Mets by 4 runs: 5%New York Mets by 3 runs: 7%New York Mets by 2 runs: 10%New York Mets by 1 run: 16%Cleveland Guardians by 1 run: 15%Cleveland Guardians by 2 runs: 11%Cleveland Guardians by 3 runs: 8%Cleveland Guardians by 4 runs: 6%Cleveland Guardians by 5 runs: 4%Cleveland Guardians by 6 runs: 3%Cleveland Guardians by 7 runs: 2%Cleveland Guardians by 8 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 9 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 10 runs: 1%Cleveland Guardians by 11 runs: <1%Cleveland Guardians by 12 runs: <1%
← NYM wins byCLE wins by →
Cleveland Guardians wins by 2 or more38%
Cleveland Guardians wins by 3 or more27%
New York Mets wins by 2 or more30%
Decided by one run31%

Centered on the expected margin above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Total range

7.6 expected
1 runs: 3%2 runs: 3%3 runs: 9%4 runs: 6%5 runs: 13%6 runs: 8%7 runs: 13%8 runs: 8%9 runs: 10%10 runs: 6%11 runs: 6%12 runs: 4%13 runs: 4%14 runs: 2%15 runs: 2%16 runs: 1%17 runs: 1%18 runs: 1%19 runs: <1%20 runs: <1%
Total runs, both teams
Total over 5.566%
Total over 7.545%
Total over 9.527%
Total from 6 to 939%

Centered on the expected total above; shape from each team's expected runs, with ties after nine settled as one-run games, matched to 14,698 past MLB games.

Starting Pitchers

from the box score
NYMChristian Scott SP · last 3 starts: 15.1 IP, 2.35 ERA, 20 Kstarted
CLETanner Bibee SP · last 3 starts: 19.1 IP, 3.26 ERA, 13 Kstarted

Starting pitchers are part of our forecast.

Rest and Schedule

before this game
NYM·CLE
Aug 4 at CLE
last game
Aug 4 vs NYM
0 days
days of rest
0 days
7
games in last 7 days
5
2nd straight road game
home / road
5th straight home game

For context, not in our forecast.

Team Comparison

2026 season · box-score averages from 114+ games
NYM·CLE
−0.07
rating (0 = average)
−0.00
4.1
runs / game
3.9
4.5
runs allowed / game
4.1
48−66
season record
57−57
25−34
home record
28−29
23−32
away record
29−28
W1
streak
L1
5−5
last 10
3−7
7.8
hits / game
7.6
1.18
home runs / game
0.96
3.2
walks drawn / game
3.6
8.4
batter strikeouts / game
8.3
9.0
pitcher strikeouts / game
9.2
0.67
errors / game
0.54

Rating Trend

NYM · CLE · 130 days
New York MetsCleveland Guardians
Rating (0 = average team)

Head to Head

last 10 meetings · CLE 6−4
Aug 4at CLENYM 6 − 2
Aug 6, 2025at NYMCLE 4 − 1
Aug 5, 2025at NYMCLE 3 − 2
Aug 4, 2025at NYMCLE 7 − 6
May 22, 2024at CLECLE 6 − 3
May 21, 2024at CLECLE 7 − 6
May 20, 2024at CLECLE 3 − 1
May 21, 2023at NYMNYM 2 − 1
May 21, 2023at NYMNYM 5 − 4
May 19, 2023at NYMNYM 10 − 9

NYM · Last 10

5−5 · streak W1
Aug 4at CLE6 − 2W
Aug 2vs MIA0 − 2L
Aug 1vs MIA2 − 6L
Jul 31vs MIA2 − 5L
Jul 30vs MIA4 − 2W
Jul 29vs ATL0 − 1L
Jul 29vs ATL3 − 2W
Jul 27vs ATL14 − 3W
Jul 26vs LAD8 − 3W
Jul 25vs LAD3 − 4L

CLE · Last 10

3−7 · streak L1
Aug 4vs NYM2 − 6L
Aug 2vs ARI5 − 0W
Aug 1vs ARI8 − 12L
Jul 31vs ARI1 − 4L
Jul 29at CIN6 − 1W
Jul 28at CIN0 − 2L
Jul 28at CIN6 − 5W
Jul 26at TB0 − 1L
Jul 25at TB0 − 3L
Jul 24at TB3 − 11L